铜行业周报：4月废铜进口量同比下降7%，8月空调排产同比增长2.7%-20250602

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve, leading to a potential rise in copper prices. As of May 30, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 77,600 RMB/ton, down 0.2% from May 23, while LME copper closed at 9,497 USD/ton, also down 0.24% [1]. - Supply-side disruptions in copper mining are increasing, leading to overall tightness. Demand is expected to weaken as the stocking effect in response to tariffs diminishes and the domestic market enters a seasonal lull. Short-term copper prices are anticipated to remain volatile, with a gradual increase expected following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: In April, copper scrap imports were 168,000 metric tons, up 7% month-on-month but down 7% year-on-year. Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 796,000 tons, up 2% week-on-week [2][49]. - Demand: The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 3.7 percentage points, while air conditioning production in August is expected to grow by 2.7% year-on-year [3][77]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 1% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9%. As of May 29, 2025, SMM copper social inventory was 139,000 tons, down 0.9% [2][25]. Futures Market Summary - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 19% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 7.3% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to rise in 2025. Recommended companies include Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, with Minmetals Resources as a company to watch [4][5].