Huachuang Securities·2025-06-02 13:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for sales recovery and growth in 2025 [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry experienced a sales recovery in May, with expectations for strong terminal sales driven by increased marketing efforts from car manufacturers. The report forecasts a retail growth rate of 5.2% and a wholesale growth rate of 8.4% for the year, supported by stable economic expectations, policy initiatives, and new vehicle launches. Notably, the demand for high-end brands priced above 200,000 yuan is expected to recover, with a projected growth rate of 31% for new energy passenger vehicles, providing a solid foundation for the performance of both complete vehicles and parts manufacturers [2][3][4]. Data Tracking - In April, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.22 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 11% but a month-on-month decrease of 10%. The retail sales for the same month were 1.59 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% and a month-on-month decline of 14%. The inventory increased by 197,000 units, which is a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times [5][10]. - In May, new energy vehicle deliveries from leading companies showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 380,000 units (up 15% year-on-year), Li Auto 40,856 units (up 16.7% year-on-year), and Xpeng 33,525 units (up 230.4% year-on-year) [22][27]. - The average discount rate in the industry rose to 7.8% in late May, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous period and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year [5][23]. Industry News - As of May 30, 2025, the retail sales of passenger vehicles from May 1 to 25 reached 1.358 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 9%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 8.23 million units, up 9% year-on-year [27]. - The China Automotive Dealers Association reported a decrease in the inventory warning index to 52.7%, indicating improved market conditions in the automotive circulation industry [27]. - The total import and export value of automotive goods in April 2025 was $23.09 billion, with exports amounting to $19.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [27].