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交运周专题:出行裸票价增速改善,美线空海运涨价兑现
Changjiang Securities·2025-06-02 14:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8]. Core Insights - The passenger load factor continues to improve, with domestic passenger volume increasing by 6% year-on-year and international passenger volume rising by 21% [3][13]. - The average domestic bare ticket price has increased by 1.5% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in oil-inclusive ticket prices due to fuel surcharges [3][22]. - The shipping sector is experiencing a price increase on the US routes, with the SCFI index rising by 30.7% to 2,073 points, indicating a positive trend in container shipping [4][48]. - The logistics sector shows a rebound in air freight prices, particularly on US routes, driven by a reversal in US tariff policies, leading to a strong recovery in air cargo volumes [5][52]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger load factor increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while international load factor rose by 2.1 percentage points [3][22]. - The domestic passenger volume's seven-day moving average shows a year-on-year increase of 6%, while international passenger volume's increase is 21% [3][13]. Maritime Transport - The average VLCC-TCE rate fell by 26.7% to $28,000 per day, indicating short-term pressure on oil transportation [4][41]. - The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 30.7% to 2,073 points, reflecting a positive outlook for shipping rates [4][48]. - The BDI index increased by 5.8% to 1,418 points, suggesting a rebound in large vessel rates due to demand inquiries for June [4][49]. Logistics - The volume of postal express deliveries reached 4.15 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [5][52]. - The average price for bulk commodity road transport decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating a weak market for bulk goods [5][52]. - Air freight prices at Pudong Airport increased by 6.1% week-on-week, driven by strong recovery in air cargo volumes due to favorable tariff changes [5][52].