LI AUTO(02015) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-06-02 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 20.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations despite a significant decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates delivering between 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2]. - The launch of the first pure electric SUV, i8, is scheduled for July, with the VLA model also expected to be released [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 2.5% [1]. - The company projects total revenues of 155.5 billion RMB, 197.9 billion RMB, and 238.3 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company plans to introduce more affordable MPV and sedan models based on market demand after the launch of the L series and i series [2]. - The MEGA Home model has been well-received, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for this version, indicating strong market insight and product definition capabilities [3]. - The company is expanding its supercharging network, with 2,328 supercharging stations and 12,689 supercharging piles nationwide, enhancing the appeal of its electric vehicles [4]. Sales and Production Forecast - The company expects to sell approximately 580,000, 750,000, and 870,000 vehicles in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to be around 19% in Q2 due to increased promotional efforts [2]. Valuation - The target market capitalization is set at 280.9 billion RMB, with a target price of approximately 131 HKD per share, corresponding to a 25x P/E ratio for 2025 [5].