固收专题：经济略为偏弱，转债波动率历史低位

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market has entered an obvious oscillation phase with rapidly declining volatility. Market reactions to tariff issues have become dull. The significant reduction in market volatility and changes in the microstructure are important points of concern in the future. There is a low probability of substantial new incremental policies in the short - term, and the market expects the economy to "weaken marginally but with a controllable range". Attention should be paid to potential market volatility risks caused by changes in the microstructure, and the subsequent possible increase in the volatility of the CSI Convertible Bond Index [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review 1. Performance of Major Asset Classes - The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All - A Index fell by 0.03% and 0.02% respectively, with the average daily trading volume of the whole market at 1.09 trillion yuan. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose by 1.88% and 2.01% respectively. The price of London gold fell by 2.05% [2] 2. Convertible Bond Market - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.23%. As of May 30, the median values of convertible bond price, conversion premium rate, and pure bond premium rate were 120 yuan, 30.29%, and 14.05% respectively [2] 3. Industry Performance - Sectors such as environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery performed well. Environmental protection was related to the launch of unmanned logistics vehicles, pharmaceutical biology to the accelerated approval by the drug administration, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery to the call for stabilizing production capacity and pig prices at a NDRC meeting [3] 4. Clause Situations - Yinlun did not redeem, while Hongchang, Zhengyu, Hangyin, and Falang redeemed. Tian23, Mona, and Hongwei did not adjust the conversion price downward, while Hangyang adjusted it downward [3] Market Dynamics 1. Economic Data - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The marginal improvement of PMI was still below 50%, mainly due to the low new order index, and exports dragged down the economy [4] 2. Automobile Industry - On May 23, BYD's Ocean Network announced fixed prices with price cuts ranging from 14,000 to 40,000 yuan. The industry may continue the "price - for - volume" strategy [4] 3. US Tariff Issue - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy was an overstep of power, and the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily suspended the ruling. The issue of US reciprocal tariffs has been fluctuating [4][5] 4. NVIDIA's Earnings - NVIDIA's revenue in the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2026 was 44.1 billion US dollars, exceeding market expectations. Data center revenue was 39.1 billion US dollars, and the net profit in the first quarter was 18.775 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 26% [5] 5. Upcoming Events - The 2025 Global Artificial Intelligence Technology Conference will be held next week [5] Convertible Bond Views - The key events in the market this week were the US International Trade Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs and the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals' temporary suspension of the ruling. The market is in an oscillation phase, and attention should be paid to potential risks caused by changes in the microstructure and the possible increase in the volatility of the convertible bond index [5][6] Recommended Convertible Bond Targets - Stable targets include Shangyin, Changyin, Hua'an, Lantian, Wenshi and other convertible bonds; elastic targets include Zhongchongzhuan2, Daotong, Yinlun, Jizhi, Limin, Qianglian, Anji, Dinglong and other convertible bonds [7]