高盛：GOOGL-人工智能创新、被低估的 YouTube、部门估值指向诱人的风险回报

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) with a 12-month price target of $220 [16][22]. Core Insights - Alphabet is strategically positioned to capitalize on the AI era, particularly within its core search business, despite investor concerns regarding potential disintermediation [17][19]. - YouTube is viewed as an underappreciated asset with significant growth potential, projected to reach approximately $99 billion in total revenues by 2029, growing at a ~13% CAGR [2][23]. - The Search & Other segment is expected to grow from approximately $198 billion in 2024 to about $318 billion by 2030, reflecting an ~8% CAGR [19][22]. Segment Analysis - Google Search & Other Segment: - Projected revenue growth from ~$198 billion in 2024 to ~$318 billion in 2030, with a ~55% GAAP EBIT margin [19][22]. - Current implied enterprise value for the Search & Other segment is ~$671 billion, indicating a valuation of ~5.3x EV/2026 GAAP EBIT [22][24]. - YouTube Segment: - Estimated to grow revenues at a ~13% 5-year CAGR, reaching ~$99 billion by 2029, with YouTube Ads growing at ~11% CAGR and Non-Ads at ~16% CAGR [2][23]. - Current operating margin is estimated at ~10%, with potential improvement to ~15% by 2030 [23][24]. - The enterprise valuation for YouTube is framed at ~$475 billion [3][23]. - Google Cloud Segment: - Valued at approximately $710 billion, contributing to Alphabet's overall enterprise value [3][23]. Financial Projections - Revenue Forecasts: - Total revenue for GOOGL is projected to increase from $295.1 billion in 2024 to $406.6 billion in 2027 [4][13]. - Earnings Projections: - EPS is expected to grow from $8.04 in 2024 to $10.59 in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [4][13]. - Valuation Ratios: - P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 20.4 in 2024 to 16.2 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [10][13].