高盛：US Weekly Kickstart-评估高债券收益率对股票的风险

Investment Rating - The report maintains a 12-month S&P 500 return forecast of 10%, targeting a level of 6500 [2][3]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 rose by 2% this week, driven by a delay in EU tariffs and a favorable US court ruling regarding tariffs [2][3]. - Rising bond yields, particularly the nominal 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.4%, are a significant concern for equity investors [2][4]. - The report emphasizes that the relationship between bond yields and equities is influenced more by the drivers of yield changes rather than the absolute level of rates [2][7]. - Elevated bond yields are expected to constrain potential S&P 500 valuation expansion, with a 100 basis point change in real Treasury yields correlating to a 7% change in S&P 500 forward P/E [2][27]. - Most S&P 500 debt is fixed-rate with maturities beyond 2028, minimizing the risk to earnings from elevated bond yields [32][33]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The nominal 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to end 2025 at 4.5% and slightly increase to 4.55% in 2026, reflecting below-trend economic growth and above-target inflation [18][19]. - The report indicates that the market's focus on US fiscal outlook remains critical, especially following recent legislative developments [19][21]. Equity Performance - The report highlights that equities typically perform well when bond yields rise due to improved growth expectations, but struggle when yields increase due to fiscal concerns [7][14]. - The S&P 500 currently trades close to fair value, supported by strong corporate fundamentals, particularly among large-cap stocks [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to avoid stocks with weak balance sheets, as these have underperformed compared to those with strong balance sheets [40][41]. - The report suggests rebalancing baskets of Weak Balance Sheet and Strong Balance Sheet stocks, as well as Interest Rate Sensitive stocks, which have outperformed amid rising bond yields [40][41].