光伏行业周报（20250526-20250601）

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the photovoltaic industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [6][64]. Core Insights - The report indicates an overall decline in production for the photovoltaic industry in June, with price support expected to weaken. The production of polysilicon is projected to see a slight increase, while silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by approximately 4% [12][13]. - The demand for battery cells is weakening, leading to a further increase in the proportion of larger-sized battery cells. The report anticipates a 4% decrease in battery cell production in June [12][13]. - The component production is also expected to decline, with a forecasted 9% decrease in June due to the end of downstream rush installations [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Production and Price Trends - Polysilicon prices have slightly decreased, with N-type recycled material averaging 37,500 RMB/ton, down 2.85% month-on-month, and N-type granular silicon at 34,500 RMB/ton, down 4.17% [12]. - Silicon wafer prices remained stable, with an overall operating rate of about 53% for silicon wafer companies. A 4% decrease in silicon wafer production is expected in June [12]. - Battery cell prices have declined, with 182N and 210N battery cells facing profitability pressures, leading to a projected 4% decrease in production [12][13]. 2. Market Performance Review - The report notes a 1.94% decline in the comprehensive index this week, with the photovoltaic equipment sector down 2.25% [14][22]. - Among individual stocks, Changcheng Electric saw a significant increase of 39.22%, while BYD experienced a decline of 13.01% [17][19]. 3. Industry Valuation - As of May 30, the industry PE (TTM) for the photovoltaic sector is reported at 16x, with a valuation percentile of 9.4%, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [25][30][35]. - The report highlights that the overall market capitalization of the photovoltaic industry is approximately 807.85 billion RMB, with 36 listed companies [6].