投资建议：结构分化，重视成长

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on growth opportunities within the industry, particularly highlighting structural differentiation in the market [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the liquor industry, particularly the baijiu segment, is currently in a bottoming phase, with a prolonged adjustment cycle compared to previous years. The market is expected to recover as policy expectations improve, leading to a potential valuation recovery in the baijiu sector [3][20]. - The beer and beverage sectors are showing signs of recovery, with beer entering its peak season and companies like Yanjing Brewery and Qingdao Beer demonstrating strong performance. The beverage sector is still in a phase of releasing individual product potential, with companies like Dongpeng showing stable growth [4]. - The report emphasizes the structural growth in consumer goods, particularly in the snack food sector, where there are clear structural benefits. The report also notes improvements in the competitive landscape for seasoning and dairy products [5]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry is currently experiencing a U-shaped adjustment, with demand and expectations adjusting less severely than in previous cycles. The adjustment period is longer, and the market has largely priced in pessimistic expectations [3][20]. - The high-end baijiu segment shows resilience, while the mid-tier and lower-tier segments face increased competition. The report anticipates that as consumer spending power recovers, the demand for premium baijiu may increase [26]. Beer & Beverage Sector - The beer sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with 2024 projected to achieve historical highs in profit margins. The industry has been transitioning towards premiumization since 2017, which has driven growth in unit prices [37][40]. - The beverage sector is characterized by strong individual product performance, with companies like Dongpeng leading the way. The report notes that the beverage market is less affected by economic cycles compared to other segments [4][40]. Consumer Goods - The report highlights a continued trend of structural growth in the consumer goods sector, particularly in snack foods, where there are significant structural benefits. The seasoning and dairy product segments are also showing signs of marginal improvement [5]. - The report suggests that the overall consumer goods market is adapting to new consumption trends, with a preference for high-growth products [5].