交银国际每日晨报-20250603

Global Macro Outlook - The report highlights significant macroeconomic uncertainties in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the long-term trade and fiscal imbalances in the US, leading to attempts at rebalancing [1] - China is accelerating its internal and external demand rebalancing as both a strategic choice and an inherent requirement for high-quality economic development [1] Asset Class Rebalancing - Global asset classes are expected to face rebalancing, with a decline in dollar credit and a rising trend in the term premium of US Treasuries, leading to a diversion of funds from long-overweighted US stocks and bonds towards non-dollar assets [2] - Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to benefit from a relatively stable policy environment and ongoing market structure optimization, positioning them as one of the few low-volatility markets globally [2] - US stocks are experiencing a narrative shift from "exceptionalism" to "sell America," facing dual pressures from policy uncertainties and valuation corrections [2] - US Treasury yields are projected to fluctuate between 4.0% and 5.0% throughout the year, influenced by supply-side pressures related to the debt ceiling [2] - The US dollar is expected to face downward pressure in the short term due to policy uncertainties, credit concerns, and hedging demands, despite some support from resilient economic fundamentals [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,158, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 0.60% but an increase of 14.32% since the beginning of the year [3] - The report provides a detailed performance overview of major global indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, with varying year-to-date changes [3] Economic Data Releases - Key economic data releases for the US include the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the Non-Manufacturing PMI, with expectations for slight improvements in the upcoming reports [4] - The report outlines the anticipated economic data releases for China, although specific events are not detailed [4] Stock Performance Overview - The report includes a detailed table of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks, highlighting their closing prices, market capitalizations, and year-to-date performance metrics [5] - Notable stocks include Tencent Holdings, which closed at 498.20 with a year-to-date decline of 3.82%, and BYD Company, which saw a significant drop of 15.56% year-to-date [5]