大越期货纯碱早报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The supply of soda ash has declined from its high level and gradually stabilized, while the terminal demand has limited improvement. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it still remains at a historically high level. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The short - term outlook for soda ash is expected to be a low - level, weak, and volatile trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: The maintenance of alkali plants is gradually being restored. Supply has declined from its high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased but remains at a historically high level. Overall, it is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,199 yuan/ton, and the basis is 36 yuan, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. It is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash plants is 162.43 tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to have a low - level, weak, and volatile trend in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Bearish Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. The cold - repair of float glass for heavy - alkali downstream is at a high level, and the daily melting volume has been continuously decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,203 yuan/ton | 1,245 yuan/ton | 42 yuan/ton | | Current Value | 1,199 yuan/ton | 1,235 yuan/ton | 36 yuan/ton | | Change | - 0.33% | - 0.80% | - 14.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - Production Profit: The profit of the combined - soda process for heavy - alkali in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy - alkali in North China is - 12.80 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historically low level [15]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.52%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize. The weekly production of soda ash is 68.51 tons, of which 36.98 tons is heavy - quality soda ash, and the production has declined from its historical high [19][21]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual expected production of 100 tons [22]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [25]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.73 tons, and the operating rate of 75.73% is continuously declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, and the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, with production stabilizing [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash plants is 162.43 tons, of which 80.60 tons is heavy - quality soda ash. The inventory is at a historically high level [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and growth rate changes in different years [35].