Soochow Securities·2025-06-03 02:34Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Weak demand has led to a decline in domestic gas prices, while storage levels are pushing down European gas prices [1][5] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand, with a focus on cost optimization for gas companies [5][48] Price Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas markets are as follows: US HH +0.6%, European TTF -7%, East Asia JKM -2.6%, China LNG ex-factory -1.1%, and China LNG CIF -4.2% [10][11] - Domestic gas prices have slightly decreased by 1.1% due to slow demand recovery and the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [24] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the US, total gas supply increased by 0.6% week-on-week to 1,125 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 0.8% to 973 billion cubic feet per day [15] - European gas consumption for January-February 2025 was 1,155 billion cubic meters, up 11% year-on-year, but supply decreased by 10.8% week-on-week [16] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 63% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [34] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery in city gas companies [34] Important Events - The US LNG import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [41][43] - The European Commission has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets to avoid supply shortages [46][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, recommending companies like Xinao Energy and China Gas [48] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao [48]