中辉农产品观点-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term Rebound for Multiple Products: The report predicts short - term rebounds for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil. For soybean meal, it's due to factors like uncertain US - China trade impact and domestic inventory conditions; rapeseed meal has a better fundamental outlook with expected lower long - term imports; palm oil is influenced by low domestic inventory and potential policy support [1]. - Weak Performance for Cotton and Jujube: Cotton is expected to be weak both internationally and domestically due to improved supply and lackluster demand. Jujube is likely to be weak in the short - term because of high old - crop inventory and weakening demand [1]. - Oscillation and Bottom - Grinding for Hogs: The hog market is in an oscillation and bottom - grinding phase. There is increasing de - stocking pressure on the spot side, and post - holiday demand is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - International Situation: South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with favorable rainfall in the next 15 days and normal rainfall expected in June according to CPC weather outlook [1][3]. - Domestic Situation: Domestic ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are increasing. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will ease and enter a stocking cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish. May - July monthly imports are estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of May 23, 2025, port soybean inventory decreased slightly week - on - week but increased year - on - year, while oil mill soybean inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased significantly week - on - week [1][4]. - Price Outlook: It's expected to open slightly lower and continue to trade above 2930 yuan. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, and the short - term rebound is technical. The 3000 - 3070 yuan range is a strong short - term resistance [1]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory and Supply: As of May 23, coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are in a good state. Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is higher than the past two years. However, May - July rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and long - term imports are expected to be low due to poor import profits from Canada [1][6]. - Price Outlook: It shows a short - term stop - falling and rebound trend, with the main contract trading in the [2585, 2650] range [1]. Palm Oil - Inventory and Export: As of May 23, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. Malaysian palm oil exports in May showed good performance. The market is concerned about the potential policy of Malaysia increasing the biodiesel blend from B10 to B20 [1][8]. - Price Outlook: It's in a short - term rebound and consolidation phase. The domestic low - inventory situation eases supply pressure, but the Southeast Asian inventory cycle may cause the price to move down. The main contract is expected to trade in the [7950, 8200] range [1]. Cotton - International Situation: In the US, the cotton planting and budding rates are at certain levels, and soil moisture has improved, which is bearish for the US cotton market. In Brazil, the 2024/25 cotton production is expected to increase [1][10]. - Domestic Situation: Xinjiang's cotton seedlings are budding, and the new cotton growth is good. There are increasing production expectations, and the new - season production is estimated to be 720 - 740 million tons. The import of cotton resources has decreased, and the domestic textile industry is in a off - season with limited order recovery [1][11]. - Price Outlook: Internationally, it's expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents. Domestically, it may be weak due to factors like potential high - temperature disturbances in June and limited demand growth [1][12]. Jujube - Production and Inventory: Xinjiang's jujube trees are growing well. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises has increased, and it's higher than the same period. The sales area has continuous supply, but the demand is weakening seasonally [1][14]. - Price Outlook: It's expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract trading in the [8600, 8850] range, and attention should be paid to weather - related price impacts [1]. Hogs - Supply and Demand: In the short - term, the second - fattening enthusiasm has declined, and the theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter will slow down from April to June 2025. In the medium - term, the pressure of pig slaughter in the third quarter is extending. In the long - term, the decline in the number of breeding sows in April 2025 is not significant. There may be a short - term increase in demand during the Dragon Boat Festival, but post - holiday demand is likely to fall [1][17]. - Price Outlook: The market is in an oscillation and bottom - grinding phase. The strategy is to short on rallies for contracts in July, September, and November, and consider the 9 - 11 reverse spread opportunity. The main contract is expected to trade in the [13400, 13750] range [1][18].