特朗普关税政策或上诉法院支持，贸易战出现升级信号，黄金具备再度走牛基础

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 2.40% during the week of May 26 to May 30, ranking low among all primary industries. Precious metals fell by 3.55%, industrial metals by 2.56%, energy metals by 3.18%, small metals by 0.69%, and new materials by 1.09% [1][15]. - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened due to declining U.S. consumer spending and escalating trade tensions, impacting industrial metals negatively. However, gold is expected to strengthen due to rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.40%, underperforming the index by 2.38 percentage points [15]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals saw declines, with precious metals leading the drop [15]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Prices remained volatile due to seasonal demand declines and macroeconomic sentiment. As of May 30, LME copper was at $9,497/ton, down 1.22% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥77,600/ton, down 0.24% [2][34]. - Aluminum: Prices decreased slightly, with LME aluminum at $2,449/ton (down 0.71%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,070/ton (down 0.42%). Social inventory fell to 549,600 tons, down 6.47% [3][38]. - Zinc: LME zinc was at $2,630/ton, down 3.06%, while SHFE zinc was at ¥22,225/ton, up 0.05%. Inventory levels decreased for both exchanges [41]. - Tin: Prices fell significantly, with LME tin at $30,230/ton (down 7.45%) and SHFE tin at ¥250,300/ton (down 5.40%). Supply expectations have increased due to resumed operations in certain mines [45]. Precious Metals - Gold: The COMEX gold price rose to $3,313.10/oz (up 0.55%), while SHFE gold fell to ¥771.80/g (down 1.06%). The market anticipates a rise in U.S. inflation, providing a bullish outlook for gold [4][50]. Economic Indicators - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 6.3% in April, indicating weakening consumer spending and investment sentiment. The PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, the lowest since March 2021 [4][28]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply for copper due to disruptions in production and a seasonal decline in demand. The macroeconomic environment is expected to exert more influence on copper prices in the short term [2][34]. Inventory Trends - Copper inventories showed mixed trends, with LME stocks at 149,900 tons (down 9.02%) and SHFE stocks at 105,800 tons (up 7.22%) [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the industry report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector.