南华尿素产业链数据周报20250602：观点：政策左右-20250603

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Under the joint suppression of domestic fundamentals and policies, the upside space for urea is limited, and the spot is expected to be under pressure. However, the opening of the export channel may relieve the fundamental pressure and support the price, with possible periodic rebounds. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - This cycle, some enterprises such as Yankuang Lunan Chemical are under maintenance, while Jiangsu Jinmei Hengsheng Chemical, Yunnan Dawei Ammonia Production, and Anhui Quansheng Chemical have resumed production. Next week, the daily urea output will be around 20.5 tons [5] Inventory - As of May 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 98.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.32 tons, and the inventory of major Chinese ports was 20.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons [5] Demand - In the agricultural sector, there is an expectation for the start of top - dressing for corn fertilizer after the wheat harvest, but the start is not obvious yet, with only sporadic follow - up. In the industrial sector, the start - up of compound fertilizers shows signs of weakening, and the consumption of urea is expected to decline after production ends. In terms of exports, the subsequent factory inspections are expected to boost market sentiment in the short term [5] Spot - On Sunday of this week, the price in Shandong was 1810 (09 basis - 37), and in Henan it was 1800 (09 basis - 47). The nitrogen fertilizer association's guidance price for June affected the market, with Shandong urea factories receiving more orders and raising prices [6]