地方债周报：地方债哪个期限更具性价比-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume. It also provides information on the planned issuance of local government bonds in the second quarter of 2025 and the investment directions of newly - added special bonds [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - Net Financing: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 228.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of 137.4 billion yuan. The issuance of new general bonds was 23.6 billion yuan, new special bonds 158 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds 41.6 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds 5.1 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 109.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 50.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 86.9 billion yuan compared to this week [1][3]. - Issuance Terms: The 7 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (32%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 60%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportion of 10 - year bonds decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of about 19 percentage points [1]. - Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds: This week, special refinancing bonds issued a total of 5 billion yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, with a total of 1.6568 trillion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Hubei plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 98.4 billion yuan, 90.1 billion yuan, and 80.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. - Issuance Spreads: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 7.8bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 30 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 22.3bp. Except for the 20 - year and 30 - year bonds, the weighted average issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1]. - Investment Directions of Raised Funds: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (21%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 7.8% compared to 2024 [2]. - Issuance Plan: As of the end of this week, 36 regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance scale in April and May, the total planned issuance in the second quarter is expected to reach 2.35 trillion yuan, with 873.5 billion yuan planned for June. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the second quarter is 1273.2 billion yuan and 1073.1 billion yuan respectively [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - Secondary Spreads: This week, the 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds had advantages in secondary spreads, with spreads of 20.7bp and 19.6bp respectively. The secondary spread of 10 - year bonds widened significantly. From the perspective of historical quantiles in the past three years, the 30 - year local government bond's secondary spread quantile was relatively high, reaching 87%. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of over 20 years in all types of regions had relatively high secondary spreads, and 10 - 15 - year bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively higher secondary spreads [4][5]. - Trading Volume: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 380.9 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.75%. Jiangsu, Shandong, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps had relatively high turnover rates, and the trading volumes of Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan were large, reaching 45.3 billion yuan, 40.9 billion yuan, and 30.4 billion yuan respectively [5].