宝城期货动力煤早报-20250603

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillation". As the peak season approaches, bullish factors for thermal coal are accumulating, and the market is in a stalemate with prices remaining stable for now. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of thermal coal remains loose, and there is a high possibility that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Analysis of Thermal Coal - Driving factors for price stability: Domestic coal prices are at a low level internationally, leading to a significant decline in the cost - effectiveness of imported coal compared to 2024 and a decrease in import volume. In June, China enters the critical period for peak - summer power consumption, and terminal power plants still have some inventory replenishment needs for the peak season, which provides some support to market sentiment [5]. - Factors restricting price increase: The overall pattern of medium - and long - term supply - demand of thermal coal remains loose, and the current port inventory is at a five - year high for the same period, increasing the likelihood that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [5].