黄金强势补涨

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong supplementary increase [1] - Silver: Strong oscillation [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Under pressure [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing trend of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, and the bull market for gold is far from over. Gold and silver prices are expected to rise, with silver following gold [2][3]. - Due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term with potential for long - term growth [1][5]. - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak, with limited upside potential in the long term [1][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to factors such as inventory and demand [8][9]. - Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound due to supply - demand games [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure because of supply overhang and cost factors [11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Tariffs change again, geopolitical situation escalates, and the price of foreign gold rebounds strongly, with domestic gold making up the increase [2]. - Basic Logic: Trump plans to raise steel import tariffs, and the Russia - Ukraine situation escalates. In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the bull market for gold is far from over [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: For short - term gold, go long on the futures market, and control positions for long - term investment. Silver will follow the upward trend of gold, with a short - term range of [8200, 8450] [3]. Copper - Market Review: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME copper first declined and then rose, and COMEX copper rose by more than 3% [4]. - Industry Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and there are potential risks such as soft squeeze - out of warehouses. The downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion situation [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Shanghai copper may open higher and move higher. It is recommended to go long on dips with light positions. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79000], and for LME copper is [9500, 9800] dollars [5]. Zinc - Market Review: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME zinc rebounded and rose by more than 2% [6]. - Industry Logic: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, affected by the steel market [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: LME zinc's rebound may drive Shanghai zinc to open higher. In the long term, short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2650, 2780] dollars/ton [7]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling [8]. - Industry Logic: The overseas macro - trade environment eases. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, and demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in surplus, and attention should be paid to overseas ore disturbances [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: For Shanghai aluminum, look for short - term opportunities to short on rebounds, with a range of [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [9]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound, and stainless steel is relatively weak [10]. - Industry Logic: The overseas macro - environment eases. The cost support for nickel weakens, and the supply pressure is obvious. Stainless steel is entering the off - season, and inventory pressure may reappear [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, with a range for nickel of [118000 - 125000] [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2507 opened low and moved high, with significant position reduction and rebound [11]. - Industry Logic: The supply is in surplus. The upstream smelters have high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies, with a range of [59240 - 61000] [12].