贵金属日报：关税担忧及地缘升级重新推升避险需求-20250603

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, while the short - term remains in a range - bound pattern. It is expected that there will be a period of volatility reduction and consolidation from late May to June. The report views short - term pullbacks as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities, but prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the near term [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals oscillated slightly lower overall but rose strongly on Monday. Negative factors included the postponement of the EU 50% tariff threat deadline, the rise of US stocks, bonds, and exchange rates, good 5Y US Treasury auctions, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards rate cuts. Positive factors included the restoration of tariffs by the US Court of Appeals, Trump's invitation to meet Powell, escalating tariff concerns, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Fund Holdings: Long - term fund holdings showed that the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 7.74 tons to 930.2 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF increased by 86.25 tons to 14303.75 tons last week. Short - term fund holdings (as of May 27) indicated that gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 10203 to 174184, and silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 2970 to 53012 [3] - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 tons to 1206.5 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 77.6 tons to 15427.6 tons. SHFE gold inventory remained at 17.25 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 106.2 tons to 1066.9 tons, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 85.9 tons to 1396.6 tons [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday night, other US employment data during the week, and US ISM manufacturing and services PMI data [3] - Events: Key events include speeches by Fed Chairman Powell, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, as well as interest rate decisions by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank [3] 3.4 Price and Spread - Precious Metal Prices: SHFE Gold Main Contract was at 771.8 yuan/gram with a daily increase of 7.48 yuan (0.98%); CME Gold Main Contract was at 3406.4 dollars/ounce with a daily increase of 93.3 dollars (2.82%); SHFE Silver Main Contract was at 8218 yuan/kg with a daily decrease of 6 yuan (- 0.07%); CME Silver Main Contract was at 34.93 dollars/ounce with a daily increase of 1.855 dollars (5.61%) [6] - Price Spreads: The SHFE - TD gold spread was 3.78 yuan/gram with a daily increase of 1.95 yuan (106.56%); the SHFE - TD silver spread was 26 yuan/kg with a daily increase of 4 yuan (57.14%); the CME gold - silver ratio was 97.5208 with a daily decrease of 2.6485 (- 2.64%) [6] 3.5 Stock and Position - Inventory: SHFE gold inventory was 17247 kg with no change; CME gold inventory was 1192.8069 tons with a decrease of 13.6728 tons (- 1.13%); SHFE silver inventory was 1066.885 tons with an increase of 30.966 tons (2.99%); CME silver inventory was 15408.5188 tons with a decrease of 19.0654 tons (- 0.12%); SGX silver inventory was 1396.605 tons with a decrease of 85.875 tons (- 5.79%) [14] - Position: SHFE gold position was 181246 lots with no change; SHFE silver position was 334026 lots with no change; SPDR gold position was 933.07 tons with an increase of 2.87 tons (0.31%); SLV silver position was 14351.820036 tons with an increase of 48.0702 tons (0.34%) [14] 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - Market Indicators: The US Dollar Index was 98.6884 with a daily decrease of 0.7524 (- 0.76%); the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan was 7.2113 with a daily increase of 0.0488 (0.68%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42270.07 points with a daily increase of 54.34 points (0.13%); WTI crude oil spot was 62.52 dollars/barrel with a daily increase of 1.73 dollars (2.85%); LmeS copper 03 was 9497 dollars/ton with a daily decrease of 70 dollars (- 0.73%) [19] - Bond Yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41% with a daily decrease of 0.02% (- 0.45%); the 10 - year US real interest rate was 2.13% with a daily increase of 0.06% (2.9%); the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.52% with a daily increase of 0.01% (1.96%) [20]