固定收益市场周观察：利空或已提前反应，6月债市或存机会

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market had expected certain negative factors in the bond market in June, mainly related to liquidity. However, these factors may have been fully anticipated and priced in, suggesting potential repair opportunities in the bond market in June. The report is not pessimistic about the bond market in June, expecting bond yields to experience a slight repair [5][8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking - Market expectations of negative factors in the bond market in June include seasonal liquidity tightness, large government bond supply, and significant maturing interbank certificates of deposit (ICDs), which may pose liability pressure on banks. However, these factors may have been fully anticipated by the market, and in the absence of new negative factors, their impact on the bond market may be controllable [5][8]. - Non - bank liquidity is relatively abundant, with wealth management products increasing their purchases of ICDs from April to May. Insurance companies' bond - allocation willingness has decreased recently but may improve in June due to potentially large maturing insurance deposits [5][8]. - Last week, long - term bond yields adjusted and then marginally recovered. Market concerns about central bank actions and liquidity, uncertainties regarding the bond - and fund - product allocation enthusiasm of banks and insurance companies, and strong stock market performance all pressured the bond market. Eventually, long - term yields recovered as yields rose to around 1.73% and cross - month liquidity fluctuations were relatively stable. On May 30, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year government bonds changed by 0.6, - 1.4, - 0.1, 1, and - 4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [5][44]. 2. Fixed Income Market Outlook 2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Releases - This week, important data to be released include China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the US May unemployment rate, and the Eurozone's ECB deposit facility rate [18][19]. 2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - Bearing Bonds - This week, approximately 715.6 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds are expected to be issued, which is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, 446 billion yuan of government bonds, 109.6 billion yuan of local government bonds, and about 160 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds are expected to be issued [19][20]. 3. Interest - Bearing Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Liquidity Injection and Funding Conditions - The central bank significantly increased reverse repurchase operations. The net liquidity injection through open - market operations this week was 656.6 billion yuan. Cross - month funding pressure was manageable, with the volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions seasonally declining and the overnight share averaging around 83%. Funding rates increased only slightly at the end of the month. On May 30, overnight and 7 - day DR rates changed by - 8.3 and 7.9 basis points respectively compared to the previous week, while overnight and 7 - day R rates changed by - 4.5 and 7.1 basis points respectively [22][23]. - ICD issuance was concentrated in state - owned banks, and the proportion of longer - term issuance increased. From May 26 to June 1, the issuance volume was 669.5 billion yuan, the maturity volume was 652.7 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.68 billion yuan. In terms of issuing banks, state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks issued 366.2, 92.2, 178.1, and 30.4 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 140.6, - 900, - 23, and - 24.9 billion yuan respectively [28]. 3.2 Long - Term Yield Adjustment and Recovery - Last week, long - term bond yields adjusted and then recovered. Market concerns about central bank actions and liquidity, uncertainties regarding the bond - and fund - product allocation enthusiasm of banks and insurance companies, and strong stock market performance all pressured the bond market. Eventually, long - term yields recovered as yields rose to around 1.73% and cross - month liquidity fluctuations were relatively stable. On May 30, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year government bonds changed by 0.6, - 1.4, - 0.1, 1, and - 4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week. The 10 - year government bond yield declined the most, by about 4 basis points, while the 1 - year Agricultural Development Bank bond yield increased the most, by 3.2 basis points [44]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, the operating rates were mixed. The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the asphalt operating rate decreased. The average daily crude steel production in mid - May decreased year - on - year [54]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales remained high. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area fluctuated significantly. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 30.7% and 0.9% respectively [54]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and coal prices also showed divergence. In the mid - stream, building material prices, cement prices, and glass prices all decreased. Rebar production continued to decline slightly, inventory decreased at an accelerated pace, and futures prices declined. On the consumer side, vegetable prices increased, while fruit and pork prices decreased [55].