华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250603

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to undergo short - term weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - Production Impact: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui have or will shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - Real Estate Transaction Data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3]. - Price Trend: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. - Future Focus: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]. Aluminum - Tariff Policy: Trump plans to raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, and US officials are accelerating trade negotiations. The dollar is under pressure due to tariff threats [2]. - Aluminum Bauxite: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment is easing, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term. Imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase. In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY [3]. - Alumina: As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [3]. - Aluminum Processing Industry: The PMI composite index in May was 49.8%, in the contraction range. The industry is in a slack season, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders [3]. - Aluminum Ingot Inventory: On May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 511,000 tons, showing a decline [3]. - Price Outlook: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a range, and attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons and macro - policy changes [4]. - Future Focus: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4].