宝城期货甲醇早报-20250603

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol futures market is expected to show a weakening trend. With the digestion of macro - positive factors, the methanol futures price is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The overall reference view is a weakening operation, with the core logic being the weak supply - demand structure [1]. Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Energy and Chemical Sector of Commodity Futures - The intraday view of methanol is weakly oscillating, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is a weakening operation. The core logic is that after the digestion of macro - positive factors, the market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted, increasing supply pressure and reaching a new weekly production high. Downstream demand improvement is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is not conducive to further reduction of port inventory. With the expected increase in external imports, the pressure of social inventory accumulation will increase in the future. The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend last Friday, with the price slightly rising 0.32% to 2208 yuan/ton [5].