格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250603

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial bond sector is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - Chinese economic data in April showed that fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than expected. In May, the official manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks in May, it was conducive to the recovery of export orders to the US. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures recovered most of the losses on Thursday, and short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Affected by the news of the reversal of the US tariff ruling, last Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated horizontally at a high level after rising. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.56%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.21%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1]. Important Information - Open Market: Last Friday, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a net investment of 148.6 billion yuan [1]. - Funds Market: Last Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market increased compared with the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the whole day was 1.48% (1.41% the previous day), and DR007's weighted average for the whole day was 1.66% (1.63% the previous day) [1]. - Cash Bond Market: Last Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds decreased compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased 2.58 BP to 1.46%, the 5 - year decreased 2.63 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year decreased 1.65 BP to 1.67%, and the 30 - year decreased 2.00 BP to 1.90% [1]. - Other Information: In May, the central bank carried out 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. In April, the US core PCE price index increased 2.5% year - on - year, the lowest since March 2021. In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. The US president announced to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50%. On June 2, it was announced that the US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November last year [1][3]. Market Logic - Chinese economic growth in April remained resilient. In May, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line, but the production index returned to the expansion range, and new export orders rebounded. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish in the short term [3]. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3].