中泰期货晨会纪要-20250603
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-03 05:49
- Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock Index Futures: Consider buying on dips and focus on the repair of the discount. Despite short - term disturbances, the outlook for the stock index is optimistic, and the market is expected to resume its upward trend [8][9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market may show a fluctuating upward rhythm in the future. The steepening of the yield curve requires a continuous and significant decline in the funding situation [10]. - Container Shipping (European Line): In the short term, the 08 contract consolidates following the spot rate. In the long - term, factors such as trans - route capacity rebalancing and the tight supply and demand situation in the peak season in July need to be considered, and there are uncertainties in both long and short positions [11]. - Cotton: During the Sino - US tariff observation period, the cotton price is under pressure to rebound due to insufficient production motivation and inventory digestion. The future trend depends on macro and supply - demand changes [11][12]. - Sugar: Due to the expected increase in supply, the international sugar price is under pressure. The domestic sugar price is affected by seasonal factors, and the future trend depends on import supply and profit changes [14][15]. - Eggs: In June, the supply and demand of eggs are expected to be relatively loose, and the egg price is under pressure. It is recommended to short the 07 - 10 contracts on rebounds [17]. - Apples: It is recommended to mainly conduct light - position positive spreads [18]. - Jujubes: Appropriate reduction of short positions, and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [19]. - Pigs: Short the near - month contracts on rallies and pay attention to the 7 - 9/3 - 5 reverse spreads. Focus on the continuity of second - fattening and the changes in the sales volume of leading enterprises [20]. - Crude Oil: The supply increase in July and the potential for further production increases are negative for long - term oil prices. The market focuses on the Russia - Ukraine negotiation results, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [21]. - Fuel Oil: The price will follow the oil price, with the low - sulfur fuel oil supported by refined oil cracking profits, but the weak shipping demand continues to affect the overall demand [23]. - Plastics: The current price is weak, but the downward space is limited. Consider a rebound or a long position in the 9 - 1 inter - month spread [23]. - Rubber: The supply pressure and the weakening demand expectation in the far - month continue, showing a weak and fluctuating trend [24]. - Methanol: Do not chase short in the short term. After a rebound, it is recommended to short [25]. - Caustic Soda: The near - month contract is affected by the warehouse receipt issue. The market may form a structure of strong reality and weak expectation, and pay attention to the high profit of the spot market [25]. - Soda Ash and Glass: The supply of soda ash increases, and the price is under pressure; the glass demand is weak, and the price is likely to continue to decline [25]. - Asphalt: It is expected to rebound following the oil price, with the upper pressure in the 3450 - 3480 area [26]. - Polyester Industry Chain: PX and PTA are expected to rebound in the short term, but attention should be paid to the potential decline in polyester plant operations due to squeezed profits [26]. - Urea: Potential export benefits provide support for the spot price, but the futures market is weak [26]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate, and short - term interval operations are recommended; alumina is expected to show a wide - range fluctuation [26][27]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to be weak before the actual supply reduction in the wet season; polysilicon is under pressure due to the expected increase in production in June [27]. - Steel and Iron Ore: The black market is expected to remain weak. The downstream demand is weakening, and the supply is at a high level [28][29]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The double - coking market is expected to continue its weak and fluctuating trend, with the coking coal supply being relatively loose and the coke following the trend [29]. - Ferroalloys: The silicon iron 07 contract is in an oversold state, and it is recommended to hold short positions in manganese silicon [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trend Judgments Based on Fundamental Analysis - Trend Short: Industrial silicon, soda ash, polysilicon, rubber, glass, eggs, pigs, jujubes, coking coal, coke, crude oil, manganese silicon [3]. - Oscillating and Bearish: Alumina, cotton yarn, cotton, aluminum, sugar, caustic soda, asphalt, rebar, apples, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, methanol, plastic [3]. - Oscillating: Para - xylene, short - fiber, PTA, fuel oil, CSI 500 stock index futures, SSE 50 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, ten - year bonds, two - year bonds, five - year bonds, thirty - year bonds, silicon iron [3]. 3.2 Market Trend Judgments Based on Quantitative Indicators - Bearish: Manganese silicon, eggs, silver, corn, PTA, lead, rebar [6]. - Oscillating: Gold, corn starch, glass, rubber, palm oil, tin, methanol, PVC, rapeseed meal, polypropylene, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, Zhengzhou cotton, aluminum, asphalt, plastic, zinc, copper, soybean meal [6]. - Bullish: Soybeans, coke, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, coking coal, sugar [6]. 3.3 Macro - economic News - The US President Trump hopes to win the court battle on tariffs, increase tax cuts, and cancel or extend the debt ceiling. The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals has temporarily suspended the relevant ruling [8]. - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, and central financial regulatory authorities will announce major financial policies [8]. - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points [8]. - In May, new home prices in first - and second - tier cities rose month - on - month, with Shanghai leading the way. New home prices in third - and fourth - tier cities fell month - on - month [8]. - The US has extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31st [8]. - Trump's government officials defend tariffs, and Trump will increase the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4th, which may trigger EU counter - measures [8]. - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [8].