能源与碳中和热点报告：OPEC+持续增产维护市场份额，油价缺少持续反弹驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ decided to maintain a production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July, with the current production policy mainly aiming to maintain market share. The accelerated production increase by OPEC+ has led to a risk of supply surplus, and the over - production situation in some member countries has not shown obvious improvement [2][3][24] - The demand in major markets is currently relatively stable, but the market's outlook for medium - and long - term demand remains cautious, and it is difficult to drive oil prices up in the short term. The increase in global on - land crude oil inventories since the second quarter is the main factor suppressing the upside space of oil prices [3][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 OPEC+ Production Increase Plan in July - Eight member countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Oman) will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. The gradually increasing production may be suspended or reversed according to market conditions. The eight countries also agreed to fully compensate for any excess production since January 2024 [10] - As of April, the total production of OPEC+减产 countries was 34 million barrels per day, basically in line with the upper limit of the total production target. The actual production of the eight voluntary - production - cut countries was 30.81 million barrels per day, with an increase lower than the planned increase [10] - In April, the eight voluntary - production - cut countries still exceeded the production limit by about 260,000 barrels per day. Kazakhstan was the main over - producing country, with a production of 1.82 million barrels per day in April, still exceeding the target by about 350,000 barrels per day [11] 3.2 Reasons for OPEC+ Production Increase and Member - Specific Situations - The main purpose of the eight core member countries to accelerate production increase is to maintain their market share. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have high idle production capacity and strict past production - cut implementation, with high potential for future production increase [2][13] - Kazakhstan's over - production has deteriorated this year. Its current production is close to the capacity limit, and future production increase space is limited. Due to the government's limited ability to intervene in the production of major oil fields, it is difficult for Kazakhstan to reach the OPEC+ agreed production target, which may threaten the stability of the alliance [14][16] 3.3 Supply Situations in Iran and Venezuela - Iran's supply is expected to remain stable in the short term. Although the US has upgraded sanctions on Iran's oil trade, it has not yet caused substantial damage to Iran's export volume. However, Iran's floating storage inventory has reached a one - year high, indicating a decline in turnover efficiency [18] - Venezuela's crude oil production and export volume have declined. After Chevron's withdrawal, the lack of investment and stable diluent supply will be the main factors hindering Venezuela from maintaining production [19] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the short term, geopolitical conflict risks have caused disturbances, but it is difficult to continuously boost oil prices. The demand during the peak season needs time to be observed, and the increase in global on - land crude oil inventories is suppressing the upside space of oil prices [3][24]