行业行深业度周报告：铜铝维持库存相对低位，重视基本面带来的价格支撑-20250603

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [74] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The U.S. International Trade Court has blocked Trump's "Day of Liberation" tariffs, leading to a slight decline in gold prices. As of May 30, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.8% to 930.2 tons. Short-term uncertainties in U.S. policy, trade negotiations, and geopolitical factors continue to support safe-haven demand for gold. In the medium to long term, ongoing macro uncertainties abroad and the weakening of the dollar's credit are expected to enhance gold's monetary attributes, leading to a positive outlook for gold prices [4][7]. - Industrial Metals: Domestic metal inventories remain relatively low, with a focus on downstream demand in June [5]. As of May 30, LME copper futures fell by 1.2% to $9,497 per ton, while domestic copper social inventory reached 138,700 tons, with a slight decrease of 1,200 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 149,900 tons, indicating a positive trend in inventory reduction. The copper market shows resilience, and if downstream demand exceeds expectations, copper prices may enter an upward channel [6][7]. - Aluminum: As of May 30, LME aluminum futures fell by 0.7% to $2,448.5 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 511,000 tons, with a reduction of 46,000 tons. The global electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline. Despite some seasonal weakness in downstream sectors, demand remains resilient, and the aluminum price is expected to rise in the medium to long term due to policy support and improved demand expectations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have slightly declined due to tariff uncertainties, but medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to macro uncertainties and dollar weakening [4][7]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Domestic demand is gradually recovering, with a long-term demand space opening up due to industrialization in emerging markets. The tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to support prices [6][7]. - Aluminum: The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, with expectations of rising aluminum prices due to strong demand and reduced inventory levels [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. Specific companies to watch include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, Zijin Mining for copper, and Tianshan Aluminum for aluminum [7].