山金期货原油日报-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in June and July, with cautious monetary policy possibly lagging economic data. Trump administration's tariff actions may return, potentially harming demand - dependent commodities, while some commodity prices are near cost levels and may face industrial structure adjustments. There's also sensitivity to the risk of a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. OPEC+ will increase production in July, with supply growth expected but the timing uncertain, seen as a medium - to - long - term negative. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated, and there should be sensitivity to geopolitical events. Overall, OPEC+ is likely to increase production, with supply - demand pressure and short - term geopolitical and tariff disturbances [2]. - The mid - term trading strategy is to sell high, short - term shorts can be held but with stop - losses due to geopolitical risks. Options can be considered for those betting on geopolitical changes and OPEC+'s unexpected policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Futures and Related Price Data - On May 30, Sc was at 447.90 yuan/barrel, down 19.20 yuan (-4.11%) from the previous day and 4.90 yuan (-1.08%) from the previous week. WTI was at 60.79 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-0.21%) from the previous day and 0.97 dollars (-1.57%) from the previous week. Brent was at 62.61 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars (-1.18%) from the previous day and 2.42 dollars (-3.72%) from the previous week [2]. - Various price differences such as Sc - WTI, Sc - Brent, and Brent - WTI also showed significant changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. 2. Crude Oil Spot and Related Data - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 63.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.60 dollars (-0.94%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 63.96 dollars/barrel, down 0.29 dollars (-0.45%) from the previous week. Other spot prices like Oman, Dubai, and ESPO also had slight declines from the previous week [2]. - The premiums and discounts of different crude oils also changed significantly compared to the previous day and week [2]. 3. Product Spot and Related Data - Diesel (East China) was at 6826.18 yuan/ton, up 7.27 yuan (0.11%) from the previous day and 176.82 yuan (2.66%) from the previous week. Gasoline (East China) was at 7700.27 yuan/ton, up 4.91 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and 67.00 yuan (0.88%) from the previous week [2]. - The price differences and ratios between diesel, gasoline, and Sc also changed [2]. 4. Inventory and Position Data - Sc warehouse receipts totaled 402.90 million barrels, with no change from the previous day. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 401.31 million barrels, up 0.82 million barrels (0.20%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was 440.36 million barrels, down 2.80 million barrels (-0.63%) from the previous week [2]. - CFTC non - commercial net positions were 16.57 million contracts, down 2.07 million contracts (-11.12%) from the previous week. Commercial net positions were - 16.91 million contracts, up 1.77 million contracts (-9.47%) from the previous week [2]. 5. Industry News - The US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation may face a breakdown as the new US proposal is considered "incoherent and disjointed" by Iranian officials, and the next round of negotiations is uncertain [3]. - OPEC+ will increase production by 41.1 million barrels per day in July and will decide on August's production policy on July 6. Saudi Arabia's reasons for supporting production increase include appeasing Trump, regaining market share, meeting demand, and punishing cheating members [7][8]. - Canada's Alberta wildfires threaten nearly 50 million barrels of daily crude oil production [8]. - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June and July, with low probabilities of rate cuts [8].