冠通期货早盘速递-20250603

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation against China until August 31, originally set to expire on May 31. China has repeatedly lodged solemn representations with the U.S. over Section 301 tariffs, which violate WTO rules, disrupt international trade, and burden U.S. businesses and consumers [2] - Goldman Sachs' commodities research team said the U.S. is investigating copper imports under Section 232 and has doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50%, increasing the likelihood of copper import tariffs. Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2025 aluminum price forecast by $140/ton to $2280/ton, expecting it to drop to $2100/ton in early 2026 and reach $2230/ton and $2500/ton in 2026 and 2027 respectively, lower than previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised 2.7%, the smallest increase in over four years. The "super core inflation indicator" also hit a four-year low. Traders still bet on a Fed rate cut in September [3] - China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 ppts month-on-month; non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 ppt; composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 ppts. New export and import order indices rose 2.8 and 3.7 ppts respectively. Some U.S.-related enterprises reported improved foreign trade [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive monthly increase. The eight OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide August production policy [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, lithium carbonate, asphalt, soybean oil, hot-rolled coils [4] - Sector percentage changes: non-metallic building materials 2.71%, precious metals 30.65%, oilseeds and fats 11.88%, soft commodities 2.44%, non-ferrous metals 19.05%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.59%, energy 2.60%, chemicals 12.83%, grains 1.58%, agricultural and sideline products 2.67% [4] 3. Sector Positions - Information about the recent five-day changes in commodity futures sector positions is presented, but specific numerical changes are not clearly stated [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47% daily, with a monthly change of 0.00% and an annual change of -0.13%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had different performances [7] - Fixed income: 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and annual changes [7] - Commodities: CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc., showed various changes [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility index also had corresponding changes [7]