美国贸易政策升温

Report Information - Report Title: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper: US trade policy is heating up, and copper prices may run stronger. Refer to the March market. After experiencing the March market, market sensitivity may decrease. Copper prices are expected to run with a slight upward bias, with attention on the resistance at the 79,000 - 80,000 yuan level [3]. - Aluminum: US trade policy affects global aluminum demand in the medium - long term but has little short - term impact. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on the long - short game at the 20,000 yuan level [4]. Summary by Section 1. Macroeconomic Factors - On May 30, Trump announced on "Truth Social" that starting from June 4, the import tariffs on steel and aluminum would be raised from 25% to 50%. This may push up the price of COMEX copper, driving up LME copper and SHFE copper. For aluminum, it mainly affects global demand in the medium - long term due to China's strong pricing power [8]. 2. Copper 2.1 Price and Volume Trends - Multiple figures show the trends of copper futures prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, and positions, etc. [10][11][15] 2.2 Declining Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been decreasing, indicating tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. Domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to the same period last year, suggesting expected tightness in the domestic ore end and over - capacity in smelting as the main reasons for low TC [24]. 2.3 Slowing De - stocking of Electrolytic Copper - Figures show the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME), indicating a slowdown in de - stocking [29]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The figure shows the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries [31]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Price and Volume Trends - Multiple figures show the trends of aluminum futures prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, and spreads, etc. [33][35][38] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Figures show the inventory of bauxite at ports and the price of alumina [45][50]. 3.3 Seasonal De - stocking of Electrolytic Aluminum - Figures show the trends of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [49]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - Figures show the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods [51][55][56]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: In late May, copper prices fluctuated. Low inventory supported prices, while reduced post - peak consumption expectations and slower de - stocking pressured prices. The increase in US trade policy may push up copper prices, but market sensitivity may be lower. Copper prices are expected to run with a slight upward bias, with attention on the 79,000 - 80,000 yuan resistance [58]. - Aluminum: In late May, aluminum prices fluctuated. Low inventory supported prices, while reduced post - peak consumption expectations weakened the upward drive. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs may lead to a decline in global aluminum consumption expectations in the medium - long term, but the short - term impact on the domestic market is limited. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on the 20,000 yuan long - short game [58].