碳酸锂周报：缺乏提涨驱动，锂价弱势震荡运行-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: Lithium prices hit new lows, with frequent shutdowns and production cuts by upstream lithium salt plants, and a continuous decline in high - frequency weekly production data. Downstream pessimism is strong, with only rigid demand procurement in the spot market and limited pre - holiday inventory build - up by enterprises. Despite production contraction, inventory remains high [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica under the Baichuan caliber decreased to varying degrees [4]. - Market: The main contract had a large - scale position transfer, with a reduction of over 50,000 lots during the week. The 7 - 9 spread quickly converged and was close to par, and the monthly spread was insufficient to cover the bag - changing cost. As of Friday, although the main contract closed higher, there were no signs of increased positions and trading volume, and a bottom could not be confirmed technically [4]. - Future outlook: Issues such as environmental protection and involution governance in the lithium - battery market have not been verified. In the short term, there may be no external disturbances, and lithium prices will return to being dominated by supply - demand logic. The overall bearish fundamentals remain unchanged. In June, the production plans of cathode material plants vary, and it is difficult to effectively boost lithium salt consumption. Although there is information about production cuts on the supply side, inventory has not been effectively reduced, and the fundamentals lack support. Technically, although the main contract tried to rise on Friday, the upper shadow ended at the 10 - day moving average, and it finally closed below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume was limited, positions weakened, and there were no signs of bulls increasing positions at the bottom. The technical bottom has not been confirmed, and lithium prices may rebound and then fall again [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/26 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 110 | 110 | 0 | 0% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 661 | 678 | - 17 | - 2.51% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 661 | 678 | - 17 | - 2.51% | CNY/ton | | USD/CNY exchange rate | 7.195 | 7.184 | 0.01 | 0.15% | - | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 5.98 | 6.01 | - 0.03 | - 0.50% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 0 | 6.05 | - 6.05 | - 100% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 5.98 | 6.03 | - 0.04 | - 0.70% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse) | 6.36 | 6.45 | - 0.09 | - 1.40% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine) | 6.97 | 6.97 | 0 | 0% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 94,658 | 92,391 | 2,267 | 2.45% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.09 | 3.11 | - 0.02 | - 0.64% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 20.90 | 21.00 | - 0.10 | - 0.48% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (811) | 14.85 | 14.65 | 0.20 | 1.37% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (622) | 12.90 | 13.00 | - 0.10 | - 0.77% | CNY 10,000/ton | [6] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulation and delivery: As of May 30, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 33,457 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,600 CNY/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 261,000 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of May 30, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 1,539 tons, an increase of 350 tons from the previous period. Affected by the falling lithium prices, upstream lithium salt plants frequently had information about maintenance and production cuts. However, salt lakes were still ramping up production, and the supply contraction failed to effectively drive inventory reduction, indicating an oversupply situation. The lithium ore port inventory was abundant, and price recovery would quickly stimulate supply elasticity [8]. - Import: In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. Among them, 20,200 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 59.3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; 6,850 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month increase of 47.4% and a year - on - year increase of 101.1%. In April, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was about 21,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.63%. Among them, 15,500 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 32.12% and 6.32% respectively. Although Chile's total lithium carbonate exports increased in April, the scale of exports to China decreased, which may drag down the import volume of lithium carbonate in China in May. In addition, the scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina increased significantly this period, but currently, the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping volume to China fluctuates greatly, so it has no continuous reference value for now [9]. - In April, the import volume of lithium ore was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 298,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The increase mainly came from Zimbabwe, with an import volume of about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 89,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Recently, a mining company in Mali, Africa, said that due to market regulatory disturbances, the shipment of its spodumene concentrate was blocked. Currently, the company has signed an underwriting agreement with Hainan Mining. Overall, although the shipment of some lithium mines is blocked, the overall shipment scale of African lithium mines is still increasing [10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of May 30, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 62,984 tons, with an operating rate of 58.05%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,083 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,850 tons, with an operating rate of 46.29%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous period. In terms of prices, as of May 30, the prices of ternary materials weakened slightly. The price of ternary 6 - series decreased from 14.08 CNY 10,000/ton to 13.99 CNY 10,000/ton; the price of 8 - series decreased from 14.59 CNY 10,000/ton to 14.49 CNY 10,000/ton; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 3.31 CNY 10,000/ton to 3.23 CNY 10,000/ton, and the price of energy - storage type decreased from 3.25 CNY 10,000/ton to 3.145 CNY 10,000/ton. Overall, the slowdown in the growth of the power terminal suppresses the prices of cathode materials. However, with the increase in the supply of lithium iron phosphate, the spot inventory of lithium iron phosphate has decreased slightly, indicating that downstream battery factories have some signs of restocking after a period of active inventory reduction. The market expects the production of cathode materials in June to be flat overall, and the prices of cathode materials are still expected to be weak in the off - season of demand [11]. - New energy vehicles: From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in May last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market in the country was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 4.05 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the perspective of weekly consumption growth, the consumption growth of new energy vehicles weakened slightly in May, and the sales growth rate decreased from 32% at the beginning of the month to 31% this period. From the perspective of consumption structure, since the new - replacement policy has shown fatigue in tapping the potential consumption of residents, the consumption growth of passenger vehicles may be difficult to support the continuous growth of the industry. Currently, the policy focus is gradually shifting from passenger vehicles to heavy - duty trucks, electric boats, etc. Multiple departments have issued documents saying that they will increase the purchase subsidy for heavy - duty trucks, transportation, and other industries. According to the information from the Passenger Car Association, Beijing will issue an additional 20,000 new energy passenger vehicle indicators [12]. - Inventory: As of May 30, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 94,658 tons, an increase of 2,267 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 33,401 tons, a decrease of 1,142 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 61,257 tons, an increase of 3,409 tons from the previous period. Overall, although the weekly production of lithium salt increased, the inventory accumulation was much higher than the production increase. There was some restocking behavior by downstream enterprises before the holiday, but the supply side was resilient, and the inventory reduction of upstream enterprises was weak, dragging down the inventory reduction process [13]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook Lack of driving factors for price increases, lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The issues of environmental protection and involution governance in the lithium - battery market have not been verified. In the short term, there may be no external disturbances, and lithium prices will return to being dominated by supply - demand logic. The overall bearish fundamentals remain unchanged. In June, the production plans of cathode material plants vary, and it is difficult to effectively boost lithium salt consumption. Although there is information about production cuts on the supply side, inventory has not been effectively reduced, and the fundamentals lack support. Technically, although the main contract tried to rise on Friday, the upper shadow ended at the 10 - day moving average, and it finally closed below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume was limited, positions weakened, and there were no signs of bulls increasing positions at the bottom. The technical bottom has not been confirmed, and lithium prices may rebound and then fall again [14] 3.3 Industry News - A 250,000 - ton lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park project in Guizhou will start trial production this year. According to the news from the Dalong Economic Development Zone, workers are currently carrying out operations such as factory building decoration, greening, and construction of auxiliary facilities at the construction site of the second - phase project of Guizhou Jiashang New Energy Materials Co., Ltd.'s 250,000 - ton lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park. The project is expected to complete equipment installation and commissioning in October and start trial production of the production line. After reaching full production, it can produce more than 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials per year [15]. - Longpan Technology plans to increase the capital of its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan by 369.7056 million CNY. On May 29, Longpan Technology announced that it plans to use 80% of the funds raised from the issuance of H - shares to increase the capital of its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan. Changzhou Liyuan plans to use the increased capital to increase the capital of its subsidiary LBM NEW ENERGY (AP) PTE. LTD. by 14 million USD. This capital increase constitutes a related - party transaction and needs to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for review [15]. - Tianqi Lithium's 26,000 - ton lithium carbonate project is located in Jiangsu. Recently, the Zhangjiagang Municipal People's Government has publicized the environmental assessment of the 26,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project of Tianqi Lithium New Energy Materials (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. The total investment is 207.4845 million CNY, and the construction scale is large. Relying on the existing lithium hydroxide production workshop and lithium hydroxide warehouse, a new carbon dioxide tank area will be added. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 26,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [15]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the futures price of lithium carbonate, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide, the price trend of imported lithium concentrate (6%), the production of lithium carbonate, etc., with data sources from iFinD, Antaike, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][22]