国债期货：股债负相关延续区间震荡，短期趋势未明朗谨慎观望

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The stock - bond negative correlation continues with range - bound fluctuations, and the short - term trend is unclear. It is advisable to watch cautiously [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On May 31, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.56%, 0.21%, 0.14%, and 0.04% respectively [2]. - The treasury bond futures index was - 0.24. The volume - price factor was bearish, and the fundamental factor was bullish. Without leverage, the cumulative returns of the strategy in the past 20, 60, 120, and 240 days were - 0.08%, - 0.34%, - 0.15%, and 1.15% respectively [2]. - In terms of funds, the overnight shibor was 1.4710%, up 6.0bp from the previous trading day; the 7 - day shibor was 1.6170%, up 1.5bp; the 14 - day shibor was 1.7390%, down 0.5bp; the 1 - month shibor was 1.6200%, down 0.1bp [2]. 3.2 Previous Trading Day Treasury Bond Futures Market - Details of the opening, high, low, closing prices, price changes, amplitudes, trading volumes, and open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year main contracts are provided. For example, the 2 - year main contract TS2509 opened at 102.372, closed at 102.396, and rose 0.04% [3]. - The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year active CTD bonds and their IRRs are given, with the current R007 at about 1.6972% [3]. 3.3 Money Market and Bond Market - On May 30, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded 1.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.95%. Interest rates for different terms had different changes [4]. - The treasury bond yield curve shifted down by 1.80 - 2.75BP, and the credit bond yield curve shifted down by 2.00 - 11.00BP [4]. - In terms of the daily change of net long positions by institutional type, private funds, foreign capital, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 4.31%, 7.83%, and 5.61% respectively. In weekly changes, private funds decreased by 1.45%, while foreign capital and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 3.95% and 3.83% respectively [4]. 3.4 Macro and Industry News On May 31, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before. With 142.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan was achieved [8]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of treasury bond futures was 0, with the range of trend intensity being an integer in the [- 2, 2] interval [9].