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大类资产周报:资产配置与金融工程国内流动性边际改善,海外基本面预期低位反弹-20250603
Guoyuan Securities·2025-06-03 07:13

Group 1 - The report highlights a marginal improvement in domestic liquidity, while overseas fundamentals are expected to rebound from low levels, indicating a mixed outlook for major asset classes [4][24][37] - Commodity prices have generally declined due to weak global demand, with only gold experiencing a slight increase of 0.55% driven by risk aversion stemming from fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [4][9] - The A-share market is under pressure with a notable rotation of hot sectors, while developed markets, particularly the U.S., are performing strongly, nearing new highs due to resilient macro data and strong earnings from companies like NVIDIA [4][9][37] Group 2 - The report recommends increasing exposure to U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors, due to better-than-expected economic growth [5] - It suggests a neutral stance on gold, as growth differentiation supports it, but short-term pressures from declining risk aversion are noted [5] - A cautious outlook is advised for A-shares, as profit expectations remain weak and liquidity improvements may not offset growth and inflation pressures [5][50] Group 3 - The macroeconomic perspective indicates that China's Business Condition Index (BCI) remains above the threshold but shows signs of slowing expansion, with profit expectations deteriorating significantly [24][32] - The liquidity index has shown a continuous improvement, driven by policy signals, although the efficiency of transmission to the real economy remains weak [28] - Inflationary pressures are highlighted, with PPI expectations hitting new lows and CPI showing consecutive months of negative growth, indicating weak consumer demand [32][36]