Report Title - Palm Oil Weekly Report [1] Report Date - June 3, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 51 to close at 3,878 ringgit/ton, up 1.33%; the palm oil 09 contract rose 54 to close at 8,060 yuan/ton, up 0.67%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 136 to close at 7,638 yuan/ton, down 1.75%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 43 to close at 9,348 yuan/ton, down 0.46%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.32 to close at 46.9 cents/pound, down 4.71%; the ICE canola active contract fell 5.6 to close at 711 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.78% [4]. - The oil and fat sector showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil performing strongly. Malaysia is upgrading its B10 policy to B20, and Indonesia has enforced the B40 policy, which may boost the incremental demand for biodiesel. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production has narrowed, and the export demand has improved significantly. India will lower import tariffs, which is conducive to expanding the export demand of producing countries. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy remains, which may be negative for the demand of US soybean oil, causing it to decline. The domestic supply of soybean oil has increased, showing relative weakness [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the manufacturing PMI data in Europe and the US have slowed down. The trade trends of major economies affect market sentiment. The US dollar index has weakened in a volatile manner, geopolitical risks have intensified, and crude oil has rebounded from a low level and closed higher. Fundamentally, India's reduction of import tariffs on crude edible oils may be beneficial to expanding the export demand for palm oil. The biodiesel policies of relevant countries still have great uncertainty. Attention should be paid to the evolution of these policies. In addition, waiting for the guidance from the MPOB report, combined with the support of rising crude oil prices and other multiple factors, palm oil may fluctuate widely in the short term [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 49.22 to 46.9 cents/pound, down 2.32 cents or 4.71%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose from 3,827 to 3,878 ringgit/ton, up 51 ringgit or 1.33%. The DCE palm oil contract rose from 8,006 to 8,060 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan or 0.67%. The DCE soybean oil contract fell from 7,774 to 7,638 yuan/ton, down 136 yuan or 1.75%. The CZCE rapeseed oil contract fell from 9,391 to 9,348 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan or 0.46%. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose from 8,600 to 8,630 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.35%. The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Rizhao fell from 8,030 to 7,870 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan or 1.99%. The spot price of imported third-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang fell from 9,610 to 9,560 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.52% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - According to SPPOMA data, from May 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia decreased by 1.06%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.34%, and palm oil production increased by 0.73%. According to MPOA data, from May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.51% compared with the same period last month. Among them, the production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 4.09%, the production in Sabah increased by 4.52%, the production in Sarawak decreased by 2.15%, and the production in Borneo increased by 2.75% [8]. - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31, 2025, were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase compared with the same period last month. According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from May 1 - 25, 2025, were 947,248 tons, a 34.71% increase compared with the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 25, 2025, were 991,702 tons, a 7.34% increase compared with the same period last month [8][9]. - Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to $856.38 per ton. Under the new reference price, the export tariff for crude palm oil in June will be $52 per ton, lower than $74 per ton last month [9]. - Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground transportation vehicles from B10 to B20. Currently, Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, has implemented a mandatory B40 blending plan and is considering further increasing it to B50 [9]. - The White House is considering a plan to clear the backlog of small refinery biofuel exemptions, and the US renewable fuel credit has decreased by 4%. In March 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.39 million tons, exports (including refined palm oil products) were 2.88 million tons, higher than 2.56 million tons in the same period last year, and the palm oil inventory at the end of March was 2.04 million tons, down from 2.25 million tons last month [10]. - India will halve the basic import tariff on crude edible oils to 10%, effectively reducing the total import tariff on these three oils from 27.5% to 16.5% [10]. - As of the week ending May 23, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.0067 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.0809 million tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 0.6972 million tons, an increase of 0.0409 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 0.2182 million tons compared with the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 0.3387 million tons, a decrease of 0.021 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 0.0573 million tons compared with the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.7659 million tons, a decrease of 0.0266 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.3564 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week ending May 30, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 13,400 tons, down from 36,420 tons the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 593 tons, up from 504 tons the previous week [11]. Industry News - In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to Algeria increased by nearly 82% to about 79,000 tons. Algeria's expanding food processing industry may drive future demand [12]. - Malaysia's Plantation and Commodities Ministry will explain its sustainable palm oil practices to EU representatives. The EU delegation is expected to visit Malaysia in September and October [12]. - Malaysia's Commodities Minister is concerned about the EU classifying the country as a "standard risk" country under the new EUDR, stating that the classification is based on old data. The MPOA CEO previously said that this classification may exclude palm oil producers, especially small farmers, from the EU market [13]. - Sarawak has produced 4.85 million tons of fresh oil palm fruit bunches, an 8.6% increase compared with the same period last year. The production of crude palm oil has also increased by 3.7% to 0.91 million tons [14]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis differences of soybean oil and palm oil, the spreads between different oil contracts, the import profit of palm oil, the monthly inventory, production, and export volume of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils [15][18][20]
多重因素作用，棕榈油或宽幅震荡
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-03 07:13