钢材周报：淡季需求临近，钢价震荡偏弱-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall industrial data last week was average, with the apparent demand for steel increasing month-on-month and inventory declining. However, due to the upcoming national high school entrance examination and college entrance examination, construction in many cities was affected, weakening spot demand. The terminal real estate market was a drag, and combined with the seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the impact of tariffs on hot-rolled coil exports, steel demand was weak. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan, a decline of 0.64%, a total trading volume of 9,514,050 lots, and a total open interest of 3,170,785 lots [2] - SHFE hot-rolled coil had a closing price of 3076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan, a decline of 1.13%, a total trading volume of 3,363,117 lots, and a total open interest of 1,552,234 lots [2] - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 702.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan, an increase of 0.50%, a total trading volume of 2,120,072 lots, and a total open interest of 716,254 lots [2] - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 726.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.5 yuan, a decline of 9.19%, a total trading volume of 3,455,596 lots, and a total open interest of 634,111 lots [2] - DCE coke had a closing price of 1308.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.0 yuan, a decline of 4.11%, a total trading volume of 134,599 lots, and a total open interest of 59,538 lots [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated weakly, the market sentiment was poor, and both futures and spot prices declined in resonance. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2890 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar quote was 3120 (-60) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3170 (-90) yuan/ton [4] - Macroscopically, the plenary meeting of the Expert Consultation Group of the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Commission was held in Beijing. The US Trade Representative's Office announced an extension of the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's behavior, policies, and practices in technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation [4] - Industrially, last week's rebar production was 2.26 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, apparent demand was 2.49 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons, rebar mill inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, social inventory was 3.95 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons, and total inventory was 5.81 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons. Hot-rolled coil production was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons, mill inventory was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons, social inventory was 2.58 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons, total inventory was 3.33 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, and apparent demand was 3.27 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons [5] Industry News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's behavior, policies, and practices in technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [6][7] - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than from January to March. Among them, the steel industry's profit from January to April was 16.92 billion yuan [10] - The US Federal Court on May 28, 2025, blocked the tariff policy announced by former President Trump on April 2, 2025, and ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports than imports to the US was an overstep of authority [10] - The plenary meeting of the Expert Consultation Group of the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Commission was held in Beijing, emphasizing key tasks such as accelerating the construction of a unified national market, comprehensively rectifying "involutionary" competition, and strengthening competition supervision and law enforcement [10] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the trends of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis, spot regional price differences, smelting profits of long-process steel mills, short-process electric furnace profits in the East China region, blast furnace operating rates of 247 national steel mills, daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills, rebar and hot-rolled coil production, social and mill inventories, total inventories, and apparent consumption [8][11][13]