煤焦早报：焦煤跌至大矿成本线，关注持仓变化-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock weakening", and for coking coal is also "shock weakening" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. According to the policy - market linkage law in recent years, the market sentiment varies in different quarters [4] - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, but the import pressure from Mongolia remains. The current price has almost reached the cost line of most coal mines, and the downward space is limited. The follow - up focus is on the overall position change [4][5] - For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. Coke enterprises still have a small profit, supply is flat, demand has peaked, and the second - round price cut has been fully implemented. If the cost side does not stabilize, there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot is weak, and futures are declining. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 918 yuan/ton, the active contract is 726 yuan/ton, the basis is 212 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton [1] Supply - Mine and coal washing plant开工率 are falling. The开工率 of 523 mines is 85.49%, and that of 110 coal washing plants is 61.55% [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 523 mines is 473.03 million tons, that of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons, that of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons, that of 230 coke enterprises is 716.66 million tons, and port inventory is 303.09 million tons [2] Coke Market Conditions - The second - round spot price cut has been implemented, and futures are declining. The price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade coke is 1340 yuan/ton, the active contract is 1308 yuan/ton, the basis is 133 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 23.5 yuan/ton [3] Supply and Demand - Supply is flat, and demand has peaked and is falling. The productivity of 230 independent coke enterprises is 75.08%, the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.69%, and the daily average pig iron output is 241.91 million tons [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 78.33 million tons, that of 247 steel mills is 654.93 million tons, and port inventory is 217.18 million tons [3] Strategy Suggestions - Hold J09 long positions lightly and wait to add positions after confirming the bottom [5]