关税担忧再起，锌价承压运行

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to the smallest increase in the US core PCE in over four years. Concerns over tariffs have resurfaced, and the market's risk appetite is cautious. [3][4][11] - In May, the monthly output of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, slightly lower than expected. However, the supply is expected to recover strongly in June, with an estimated increase to 590,200 tons. The demand side shows strong resilience during the off - season, but there is a lack of continuous new export orders. [4][11][14] - Overall, the strong current fundamentals persist, and the inventory inflection point has yet to arrive, causing the decline in zinc prices to be impeded. However, with the strong recovery of refined zinc supply in June and the expected seasonal decline in consumption, the supply - demand balance is tilting marginally, and a bearish view on zinc prices is maintained. [4][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The closing price of SHFE zinc on May 24 was 22,185 yuan/ton, and on June 2, it was 22,225 yuan/ton, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc on May 24 was 2,712.5 dollars/ton, and on June 2, it was 2,693 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 19.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.18 to 8.25. [5] - The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1,763 tons, the inventory of LME decreased by 15,350 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. [5] 2. Market Review - The main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2507, rose rapidly on Monday evening last week due to rumors of an extended maintenance at a large smelter in Guangxi. However, the actual impact was lower than expected, and the price gave back its gains, ending at 22,225 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.05%. [6] - LME zinc's price center slightly moved up along the 5 - day moving average, but faced significant pressure from the 20 - day moving average, ending at 2,629.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.06%. It stabilized and rebounded weakly on June 2. [6] - In the spot market, the supply of goods remained tight, and traders held up prices. The spot premium increased slightly in the first half of the week but stabilized in the second half as downstream procurement declined. [7] - As of May 30, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,350 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,763 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons. [8] - In terms of macro - factors, the US Federal Court initially blocked Trump's tariff policy, but the decision was later suspended. The Fed is cautious about rate cuts, and the market still anticipates a rate cut in September. Trump plans to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The US has extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31. [9] - In China, the profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 3% year - on - year in April. The official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. [10] 3. Industry News - As of the week ending May 30, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3,600 yuan/metal ton and 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/metal ton and no change for the latter. [13] - The refined zinc output in May was 549,400 tons, slightly lower than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The output in June is expected to be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.43%. [14] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, and downstream enterprise operating rates. [16][17][24][25]