国新国证期货早报-20250603

1. Market Performance Summary - On May 30, A-share three major indices collectively pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.47% to 3347.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% to 10040.63 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% to 1993.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1139.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and sorted out on May 30, closing at 3840.23, down 18.47 from the previous day [1]. - The coke weighted index was weak on May 30, closing at 1309.3 yuan, down 28.1 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained weak, closing at 728.3 yuan, down 39.5 from the previous day [1]. 2. Product - Specific Analysis Futures Index - The A - share market showed a collective decline on May 30, with reduced trading volume [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Coke enterprises suffered small losses, with short - term supply remaining stable. Steel mills had a driving force to reduce production in the off - season, leading to a decline in real demand for coke. Coke enterprises saw inventory accumulation, and the second round of price cuts was implemented [1]. - Coking coal: Some domestic mines in the main production areas limited production, and the import inventory at the China - Mongolia border accumulated again. The real demand for coking coal declined as the blast furnace hot metal output peaked and declined [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - Affected by factors such as the year - on - year decline in sugar production in the first half of May in Brazil's central - southern region and the rise in crude oil prices, the US sugar fluctuated slightly higher during the holiday. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of May was 2408000 tons, a 6.8% decline from the same period last year [2]. Rubber - The rubber - tapping season in Cote d'Ivoire, Vietnam, and Thailand led to an increase in spot supply. Uncertainty in US tariff and trade policies and weak US economic data affected market sentiment, causing the Japanese rubber futures price and Southeast Asian spot quotes to decline during the holiday [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market rose continuously last week, but gave back some gains on the Friday night session. The increase in production in May in Malaysia narrowed, the increase in exports expanded, and the inventory pressure eased. The domestic palm oil market had weak supply and demand, and the origin palm oil was still the key factor [3][4][5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures were weak on June 2. Ample Brazilian soybean supply suppressed prices. Domestically, with the increase in soybean arrivals, the soybean inventory continued to rise, and the soybean meal inventory was expected to increase. The short - term demand for soybean meal increased limitedly [4][5]. Live Pigs - On May 30, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The breeding end's slaughter rhythm changed, and the overall market was in a pattern of loose supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm [6]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper was in a situation of long - short entanglement. The supply side had a tight expectation, while the demand side entered the off - season, but some terminal demands showed good performance [6]. Iron Ore - On May 30, the iron ore 2509 main contract closed down. Overseas shipments decreased, and the port inventory continued to decline. The iron ore market showed a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On May 30, the asphalt 2507 main contract oscillated and declined. The capacity utilization rate and shipment volume decreased, and the market was in a pattern of weak supply and demand, showing a volatile trend in the short term [7]. Cotton - Last week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13275 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the growth of cotton seedlings in Xinjiang was generally good, but there were some problems in some areas [7]. Logs - The 2507 log contract showed certain characteristics on May 30. The spot price had some support, and the futures price rebounded. The market entered the off - season, with weak demand and little change in the supply - demand relationship [7][9]. Steel - The US export tax ruling event reversed again, and the market sentiment was affected. The short - term possibility of steel mill production reduction was low, and the terminal demand was limited. The overall market was considered weak [9]. Alumina - Guinea revoked the exploration licenses of some mining companies, affecting the supply of bauxite. The domestic demand for alumina remained relatively stable, and the fundamentals were in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was relatively stable, and the demand decreased slightly as the market transitioned from the peak consumption season to the off - season [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate continued to decline. The cost support weakened, and the supply - demand surplus pattern was difficult to improve, putting downward pressure on the price [11].