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冠通期货资讯早间报-20250603
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-06-03 07:24

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.74% to $3,406.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 5.76% to $34.93 per ounce. The increase was supported by heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions and geopolitical risks [6][34]. - International oil prices rose across the board, with the US crude oil main - contract rising 3.7% to $63.04 per barrel and Brent crude oil main - contract rising 3.63% to $65.06 per barrel. The increase was due to OPEC+’s lower - than - expected production increase and geopolitical concerns [6][37]. - London base metals mostly closed higher, with LME zinc rising 2.79% to $2,693.00 per ton and LME nickel rising 1.79% to $15,510.00 per ton. Future market volatility may continue [2][37]. 2. Macroeconomic Information - In May 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations [4]. - At the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 265.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.04% [7]. - In 2024, the national housing provident fund loans issued were 1.3 trillion yuan, and the housing provident fund deposit amount was 3631.783 billion yuan [7]. - The US factory activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in May, and the import index fell to a 16 - year low [8]. 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange resumed the designated glass delivery warehouse business of Hubei Yijun Yaoneng New Materials Co., Ltd. and added two new designated glass delivery warehouses [10]. - In May, the inventory days of domestic photovoltaic glass increased to over 30 days, an increase of more than 1 day compared with April [11]. - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month in July [14]. 4. Metal Futures - Last week, copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7,120 tons, while aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin inventories decreased, and nickel inventory increased [16]. - In April 2025, the total import and export volume of automobile commodities was $23.09 billion, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%. From January to April, the cumulative import and export volume was $81.88 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [16]. - Goldman Sachs raised its aluminum price forecast for the second half of 2025 to $2,280 per ton but lowered the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [16][37]. 5. Black - Series Futures - In May 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage floating value decreased by 31.2 yuan/ton compared with April, a decline of 2.39% [18]. - Mongolia's ER company's coking coal has had 16 consecutive auction failures [19]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 122,250 tons [22]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69% [23]. - Gabon will stop exporting manganese ore raw materials from 2029 [24]. 6. Agricultural Product Futures - As of the week of May 30, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 35.65 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 84.37 yuan/head [26]. - Muyuan Co., Ltd. decided not to sell commercial pigs to secondary fattening customers [27]. - It is expected that the soybean imports will be 12 million tons in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August [28]. - As of the week of May 27, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas and 23% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought [31]. - As of May 31, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.8% [31]. - As of the week of June 1, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 67%, and the planting rate was 84% [31]. - As of the week of May 29, the US soybean export inspection volume was 268,343 tons [31]. - At the end of March, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 213,000 tons compared with February, and the March production increased by 7% year - on - year [32]. 7. Financial Markets - Many institutions are avoiding 30 - year US Treasury bonds and choosing short - term bonds. US Treasury yields rose across the board, and the US junk - bond default rate in May hit a 15 - month high [38]. - European bond yields generally rose [39]. - The US dollar index fell 0.75% in late New York trading. Non - US currencies mostly rose. Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar will fall by about 9% by the middle of next year [42]. 8. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Australia's Q1 current account, China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, etc. [45]. - Events to occur include China's central bank's 830 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase expiring, the RBA's release of the June monetary policy meeting minutes, etc. [47]