Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, or go long on IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" opportunistically [4]. - The short - term bond market trend is mainly volatile, and in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and the expectation of continued loose funds, the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and go long on dips [7]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 777 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 8342 - 8733 yuan/kilogram [9]. - For various metals and non - metals, the price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, trade policies, and cost. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different situations, such as being cautious about going long on copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and waiting for opportunities to short nickel, tin, etc. [11][12][16] - For energy and chemical products, the current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is recommended to short on rallies. For other products like methanol, urea, etc., different trading strategies are given based on their supply - demand situations [40][41] - For agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to the supply - demand and price trends of different products, such as being cautious about going long on pigs and eggs, and paying attention to the cost and supply - demand situation of soybean meal [51][52][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.96%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1139.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro news includes disputes between China and the US on trade, the recovery of China's official manufacturing PMI in May, and Trump's tariff policy [2]. - The financing amount decreased by 1.129 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 6.00bp to 1.4710%. The 3 - year corporate bond AA - level interest rate decreased by 1.23bp to 3.0414%, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1.90bp to 1.6762% [3]. - The trading logic is that after the Trump tariff policy disturbance, domestic policies have stabilized the economy and the stock market, and the risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures on dips and go long on IC or IM futures opportunistically [4]. Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the TL main contract rose 0.56%, the T main contract rose 0.21%, the TF main contract rose 0.14%, and the TS main contract rose 0.04% [5]. - In May, China's manufacturing PMI improved, and the production and new order indexes increased. Trump's tariff increase on steel and aluminum was opposed, and the US manufacturing data was weak [5][6]. - The central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan [6]. - The short - term bond market trend is mainly volatile, and in the long - term, the interest rate is expected to decline. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and go long on dips [7]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.70% to 771.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.07% to 8218.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.47% to 3413.20 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.54% to 34.88 US dollars/ounce [8]. - The US economic data was weaker than expected, and the market's expectation of the Fed's marginal easing monetary policy increased. The Fed's monetary policy stance was dovish [8]. - It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 777 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 8342 - 8733 yuan/kilogram [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices rose slightly and then fell. The LME copper fell 1.22% to 9497 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77600 yuan/ton. During the Dragon Boat Festival, Trump's threat to raise steel and aluminum tariffs led to a rise in US copper [11]. - The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.2 million tons last week. The spot import loss of copper increased, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [11]. - The supply of copper raw materials is relatively tight, but the supply tension has been marginally alleviated. The consumption resilience has weakened, and it is expected that the copper price will face greater resistance to rise. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract this week is 76500 - 79000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M is 9350 - 9700 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated and corrected. The Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 0.42%, and the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to 2448 US dollars/ton [12]. - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline. The supply was stable, and the demand showed a slight improvement [12]. - The domestic commodity atmosphere is bearish, and the official manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 19800 - 20400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M is 2380 - 2520 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - Last week, zinc prices rose and then fell. The Shanghai zinc index fell 1.29% to 22118 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 58.5 to 2658 US dollars/ton [13]. - The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and the domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase in June. The terminal consumption is weak, and the zinc price has a large downward risk [13][14]. Lead - Last week, lead prices continued to decline. The Shanghai lead index fell 0.80% to 16611 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 34 to 1953.5 US dollars/ton [15]. - The downstream lead - acid battery enterprises promoted sales by reducing prices, and the terminal procurement was weak. The supply of primary lead increased, and the production of recycled lead decreased. The lead price may have more downward space [15]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The market rumor of a large - scale relaxation of nickel ore quotas led to concerns about oversupply [16]. - The production of refined nickel remained high, and the demand was weak. The cost provided some support in the short - term, but the demand was the main contradiction. It is not recommended to short on the decline, and it is advisable to short on rallies [16]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fell sharply due to the resumption of production in the Wa State tin mine and the expectation of supply recovery in the second half of the year [17]. - The supply is expected to turn loose, and the demand is weak. The tin price center may move down. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 28000 - 31000 US dollars/ton [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium fell 2.61% this week. The fundamentals are weak, and the downstream replenishment is weak. The supply is slow to clear, and the cost support is weak. The disk is expected to run weakly. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract is 59100 - 60500 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - On May 30, the alumina index fell 0.03% to 2957 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and the import window was open [19]. - The alumina production capacity is in an over - supply pattern, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost. It is recommended to go short on rallies lightly. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12685 yuan/ton on Monday, a decrease of 0.04%. The spot price was under pressure, and the market was in a difficult situation. The 304 stainless steel market is expected to continue the weak downward trend in the short - term [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% [22]. - The pre - holiday commodity market was poor, and the finished product prices were in a weak shock trend. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the supply decreased. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand increased, and the inventory continued to decline [23]. - The current market has entered the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand for steel is weakening. The tariff policy is unstable, and the long - term demand for steel in China still faces great pressure [23]. Iron Ore - The iron ore main contract (I2509) closed at 702.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71%. The supply of iron ore decreased slightly, the demand for molten iron decreased, and the inventory continued to decline [24]. - As the molten iron output peaks and the downstream demand is expected to decline, the iron ore price is under pressure and may run weakly in a shock [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass was weak, and the production enterprises reduced inventory slightly. The medium - term glass price is expected to run weakly due to the lack of significant improvement in the real estate market [25][26]. - The spot price of soda ash was stable, and the supply decreased due to summer maintenance. The demand is expected to decline, and the inventory pressure is large. The soda ash price is expected to run weakly [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The manganese silicon main contract continued to decline, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell and then rebounded slightly. The prices of both decreased significantly this week [27][28]. - The decline is due to factors such as the overall weakness of commodities, over - capacity, and cost reduction. It is not recommended to buy on the left - hand side based on "low valuation" [29][30][32]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures main contract continued to decline. The price is in a downward trend, and it is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips blindly [33]. - The root cause is the over - capacity in the industry and the difficulty of capacity clearance. The supply is still slightly more than the demand, and the price may continue to decline [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and the Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [37]. - The bulls believe in the production - reduction expectation, while the bears think the demand is weak. The operating rate of tire enterprises is different, and the inventory of natural rubber decreased slightly [38]. - It is recommended to follow the trend, take a neutral or bearish view, and operate in the short - term. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [39]. Crude Oil - WTI crude oil futures rose 3.70%, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.91%, and INE crude oil futures fell 3.31%. The Chinese crude oil inventory increased, and the refined oil inventory decreased [40]. - The current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [40]. Methanol - The 09 contract of methanol fell, and the spot price rose. The domestic supply will increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread [41]. Urea - The 09 contract of urea fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is mediocre. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. PVC - The PVC09 contract rose, and the cost was stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not realized [43]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract fell, and the supply and demand were in a de - stocking stage. The terminal export was strong, but there is a risk of valuation correction [44]. PTA - The PTA09 contract fell, and the supply was in the maintenance season. The demand was stable, and the PTA will continue to de - stock. The PTA price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [45]. p - Xylene - The PX09 contract fell, and the PX load increased. The PX is expected to slow down de - stocking in June and enter the de - stocking cycle again in the third quarter. The price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [46]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price may maintain a shock trend. The supply may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price is expected to be bearish in June. The supply will increase significantly, and the demand will decline seasonally [48]. Agricultural Products Pigs - The pig price fluctuated during the holiday. The short - term spot performance is weak, but the space for further decline is limited. It is recommended not to go long and wait for opportunities to short on rallies [51]. Eggs - The egg price was stable during the holiday, and the supply is abundant. The demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to decline this week. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contracts [52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell during the holiday, and the domestic soybean meal price was stable. The soybean and soybean meal are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost and supply - demand situation for the 09 contract [53][54][55]. Oils and Fats - The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in May, and the export increased. The Indonesian palm oil production and consumption increased, and the inventory decreased. The palm oil price has some support in the short - term but is under pressure in the medium - term. The US soybean oil price fell. The oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [56][57][58]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell, and the international sugar supply may be less tight. The domestic sugar price may weaken in the future [59]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated slightly. The downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the cotton inventory decreased slightly. The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [60].
五矿期货文字早评-20250603
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-06-03 07:22