Report Title - Lithium Carbonate Monthly Strategy Report, June 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market are still bearish, but the price fluctuation is intensified due to the game between bulls and bears. The lithium ore price continues to fall, with the lowest transaction price dropping to $600/ton. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons, and the production is expected to increase in June. The cathode production data is average, but the cathode inventory is continuously digested. The cell production continues to slow down, but the terminal sales are still eye - catching with a high penetration rate. The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons, with a slight increase in downstream inventory and a decrease in upstream and intermediate inventories [4]. Summary by Directory 1 Price - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops by 4.9%, and the prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and most cathode materials decline. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops from 66,960 yuan/ton to 59,800 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) drops from $779/ton to $676/ton [5][6] 2 Inventory - The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons. The downstream inventory increases by 752 tons to 41,616 tons, the intermediate - link inventory decreases by 180 tons to 33,720 tons, and the upstream inventory decreases by 780 tons to 56,235 tons [5][12] 3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - Relevant charts show the trends of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, and lithium hydroxide export profit, etc., but specific profit data are not summarized in the text [18][19] 4 Supply 4.1 Lithium Resources - The production data of sample lithium mica mines and Chinese sample spodumene mines are provided. For example, on April 30, 2025, the total production of sample lithium mica mines (with a market share of about 65%) is 15,450 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines is 4,900 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent [25] 4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons. Among them, the production from lithium spodumene increases by 20 tons to 7,519 tons, from lithium mica increases by 370 tons to 4,382 tons, from salt - lake lithium extraction increases by 67 tons to 2,907 tons, and from recycling lithium extraction increases by 30 tons to 1,772 tons [5][29] 4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Charts show the production, capacity, and production by process and region of lithium hydroxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [41][42] 4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Charts present the production, export, and monthly operating rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate, as well as the theoretical production cost of solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate produced by purchasing LiF externally, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [44][45] 4.5 Waste Recycling - Charts show the recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries, including the total volume of ternary waste, lithium iron phosphate waste, and lithium cobalt oxide waste, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [49][50] 5 Materials 5.1 Ternary Precursor - Charts show the profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export volume of ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [52][53] 5.2 Ternary Material - The weekly inventory of ternary materials decreases by 282 tons to 14,894 tons. Charts also show the production profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export of ternary materials [5][55] 5.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreases by 1,172 tons to 81,378 tons. Charts show the operating rate, capacity, production, cost, and export of lithium iron phosphate [5][57] 5.4 Other Materials - Charts show the capacity, production, and operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobalt oxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [58][59] 6 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells decreases by 19.9% to 19.23 GWh. Among them, the production of lithium - iron cells decreases by 25.5% to 12.28 GWh, and the production of ternary cells decreases by 7.8% to 6.95 GWh [5][61] 7 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From May 1 - 25, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market is 726,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in May last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market is 53.5%. The cumulative retail volume this year is 4.05 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [5][70] 8 Supply - Demand Balance - Charts show the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [72][73] 9 Options - Charts show the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes related to lithium carbonate closing prices, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [78][79]
碳酸锂月度策略报告-20250603
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-03 07:23