铁合金策略月报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have been declining due to weak terminal demand, high inventory levels, and insufficient cost support. It is expected that in the short - term, both will continue to follow the downward trend of the black sector [5][7] - For manganese silicon, cost support is weak, terminal demand is weak, and market sentiment needs to be boosted. The supply - demand structure remains loose, and the price lacks obvious support [6] - For ferrosilicon, market sentiment is weak, terminal demand is insufficient, inventory is relatively high, and the price lacks support. Although production is decreasing, weak downstream demand is the focus, and production costs are also falling [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - In May 2025, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures oscillated downward, with ferrosilicon having a larger decline. The closing price of the manganese silicon main contract decreased from 5,560 yuan/ton on May 6th to 5,478 yuan/ton on May 30th, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47%. The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased from 5,398 yuan/ton to 5,298 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [8][10] 3.1.2 Spot Price - The spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon also declined, with ferrosilicon having a larger decline. For example, in different regions, the spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon in May 2025 decreased compared to April [11][13] 3.1.3 Basis - The basis of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon oscillated and strengthened. For example, the SM01 basis of manganese silicon increased from - 80 yuan/ton on May 23rd to - 18 yuan/ton on May 30th, a week - on - week increase of 62 yuan/ton. The SF01 basis of ferrosilicon increased from 18 yuan/ton to 198 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 180 yuan/ton [16][18] 3.1.4 Near - far Spread - The near - far spreads of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon oscillated and strengthened. The 9 - 1 spread of manganese silicon increased from - 62 yuan/ton on May 23rd to - 40 yuan/ton on May 30th, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of ferrosilicon also increased from - 52 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton [21][22] 3.1.5 Double - silicon Spread - The double - silicon spread (ferrosilicon - manganese silicon) decreased from - 162 yuan/ton on May 6th to - 180 yuan/ton on May 30th, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan/ton [25] 3.1.6 Production Cost - The production costs of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. The production cost of manganese silicon in the northern region decreased from 5,808.5 yuan/ton in April to 5,763 yuan/ton in May, and the production cost in the southern region decreased from 6,240.4 yuan/ton to 6,117.7 yuan/ton. The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5,681 yuan/ton to 5,476 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia, it decreased from 5,620 yuan/ton to 5,427 yuan/ton [26][27] 3.1.7 Production Profit - The immediate production profit of manganese silicon in the northern region decreased more than that in the southern region, and the immediate production profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia decreased significantly. For example, the production profit of manganese silicon in the northern region decreased from - 202.57 yuan/ton in April to - 293.22 yuan/ton in May [29][32] 3.2 Manganese Silicon Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - In May, the total production of manganese silicon was about 77.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.33 million tons. However, the weekly production stopped falling and increased for two consecutive weeks. As of the week of May 30th, the weekly production was 169,925 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86%. The operating rates of manganese silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and Yunnan increased month - on - month, while that in Ningxia continued to decline [5][34] 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly demand for manganese silicon from sample steel mills and the inventory of steel mills are at relatively low levels in the same period in recent years. The price of steel procurement has continued to weaken, and the terminal demand is relatively weak. It is expected that this situation will continue for a long time [5] 3.2.3 Cost - The inventory of manganese ore at ports is gradually increasing, and the price trend of manganese ore is somewhat differentiated. The overall cost is oscillating downward. As of May 23rd, the total inventory of manganese ore at ports was about 4.205 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [6] 3.2.4 Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. As of the week of May 23rd, the inventory was 201,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 41,600 tons [5] 3.2.5 Manganese Ore - The inventory of manganese ore at ports is gradually increasing, and the inventory of Australian ore is continuously decreasing. The manganese ore shipping volume and arrival volume decreased month - on - month [62][64] 3.2.6 Option - The historical volatility of manganese silicon options increased month - on - month [69] 3.3 Ferrosilicon Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - The production and operating rate of ferrosilicon continued to decline, reaching a new low in the same period in recent years. As of the week of May 30th, the weekly production was 84,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%. It is expected that the production in May will continue to decline [7][75] 3.3.2 Demand - The terminal demand is weak. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from steel mills and the available inventory days of steel mills are at relatively low levels in the same period in recent years. It is expected that this situation will continue for a long time [7] 3.3.3 Cost - The cost support has weakened. In May, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia decreased, and the price of small - sized blue carbon decreased month - on - month [7] 3.3.4 Inventory - The inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises increased slightly month - on - month and was still at a high level in the same period in recent years. As of the week of May 23rd, the inventory was 75,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 24,570 tons. The available inventory days decreased month - on - month and were still at a low level in the same period in recent years [7][97] 3.3.5 Option - The historical volatility of ferrosilicon options increased month - on - month, and the put - call ratio of option positions decreased month - on - month [106][107]