2025年6月橡胶策略报告-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback on rubber demand may gradually emerge, and rubber prices will fluctuate and bottom out. In June, the rubber fundamentals will remain weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. After the rubber price breaks through the support level, it may continue to fall to the previous low [2][104]. - For butadiene rubber, the cost of butadiene shows an oscillating pattern. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber may continue to be in a loss state. The supply side will change little in June, but the demand from downstream and terminal automotive sectors is significantly weakening, and the impetus from exports is insufficient, leading to a decline in the price of butadiene rubber [104]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - Futures prices: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the RU, NR, and BR futures prices changed by -1150 yuan/ton, -420 yuan/ton, and +65 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - Basis: The RU, NR, and BR basis on May 30, 2025, were -55 yuan/ton, 134 yuan/ton, and 555 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +100 yuan/ton, +32 yuan/ton, and -65 yuan/ton compared to April 30 [7]. - Backwardation structure: The rubber month - spread BACK structure deepened [9]. - Price spreads: The RU - NR spread on May 30, 2025, was 1833 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 559 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 536 yuan/ton [12]. - Substitution relationship: The price spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber narrowed, weakening the substitution effect of synthetic rubber [17]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of Thai standard rubber on May 28, 2025, was -102.48 dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.08 dollars/ton and a year - on - year increase of 27.96 dollars/ton [19]. 3.2 Supply - Domestic and foreign production areas: In 2025, the phenological conditions in the global main production areas of natural rubber are good, and the tapping progress in domestic and foreign production areas is smooth. By June, the tapping in large - scale production areas such as Thailand will be in full swing, and the raw materials will increase significantly [23][104]. - Production volume: ANRPC predicted that the global natural rubber production in April 2025 would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and the annual production would increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [26]. - Export volume: The cumulative year - on - year export volume of major producing countries increased. For example, Thailand's total export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first four months increased by 13.5% year - on - year, and the export volume to China increased by 38% year - on - year [37]. - Import volume: China's imports of natural and mixed rubber continued to rise year - on - year and month - on - month. In April 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.6% [42]. - Synthetic rubber supply: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.3% on May 30, 2025. There were few restarting devices for butadiene rubber in June [45][51][52]. 3.3 Demand - Domestic demand: The domestic demand for natural rubber was stable with a slight increase. However, the downstream tire industry faced high inventory and weakening digestion ability, and the sales pressure of terminal automobile enterprises increased [56][104]. - Export demand: From January to April 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased year - on - year, but the export may weaken in the second half of the year [67]. - Automobile industry: The production and sales of automobiles continued to grow, but the demand for passenger cars and commercial vehicles was significantly differentiated [68][70]. 3.4 Inventory - Exchange inventory: As of May 30, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 198,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,050 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 211,684 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,073 tons. The 20 - rubber warehouse receipt was 17,641 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53,524 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 27,517 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,821 tons [76]. - Social inventory: As of May 25, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.308 million tons, the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 790,000 tons, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 518,000 tons [78]. 3.5 Position - RU position: The total position of the RU main contract rebounded. As of May 30, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 233,478 lots, a week - on - week increase of 74,078 lots [84][87]. - NR and BR positions: The NR position was 38,816 lots on May 30, 2025, a week - on - week increase of 12,612 lots; the BR position was 42,809 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,690 lots [87]. 3.6 Options - Natural rubber options: Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of trading volume and open interest is provided [90][92]. - Butadiene rubber options: Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of trading volume and open interest is provided [98][100].