Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton provide limited driving force, and it is expected to operate slightly weaker within a range. In the international market, due to continuous macro - disturbances and limited fundamental driving forces, ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating performance. In the domestic market, terminal demand is a major factor affecting cotton prices, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price is expected to operate slightly weaker within a range in the short term [4][11][12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global Production Forecast: The USDA May report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 25.651 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 710,000 tons or 2.7%. China's production is expected to be 6.314 million tons, a decrease of 653,000 tons or 9.4%, but the market believes the USDA underestimates it. Brazil's production is estimated at 3.974 million tons, a 7.4% increase; the US production is expected to be 3.157 million tons, a 0.6% increase; Australia's production is expected to be 893,000 tons, a 26.8% decrease [6][38]. - US Drought Impact: The area affected by drought in the US is gradually decreasing. As of May 20, 2025, the US drought - affected area accounted for 31.65% (D1 - D4 level), a month - on - month decrease of 1.60 percentage points [42][45]. - US Planting Progress: As of May 25, 2025, the US cotton planting progress was 52%, 4 percentage points lower than the five - year average [50]. - China's Planting Area: China's new cotton planting area in Xinjiang may increase slightly year - on - year, and China's cotton is still likely to have a good harvest this year [12]. - China's Pima Cotton Sales: As of May 22, 2025, China's cotton sales volume was 5.546 million tons, and the sales rate was 83.10%, both higher than the same period in previous years [56]. Demand - Global Consumption Forecast: The USDA May report predicts that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 304,000 tons or 1.2%. China's consumption is expected to be 7.947 million tons, a decrease of 109,000 tons [7][57]. - US Retail Sales: In April 2025, the US clothing and clothing accessories retail sales were $25.837 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [60]. - Overseas Textile Enterprises' Operating Rates: As of May 30, 2025, Vietnam's textile enterprises' operating rate was 65%, a week - on - week decrease of 1 percentage point; India's was 75%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; Pakistan's was 58.5%, remaining flat [63]. - China's Retail Sales: In April 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and textile products retail sales were 108.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; from January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The growth rate was lower than that of social retail sales [7][66]. - Yarn and Grey Cloth Operating Loads: As of May 30, 2025, the yarn comprehensive operating load was 55.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48 percentage points; the pure - cotton yarn mill load was 54.08%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.22 percentage points; the all - cotton grey cloth load was 49.52%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points [7][67][70]. Import and Export - Global Import Forecast: The global cotton import volume in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 9.759 million tons, an increase of 510,000 tons year - on - year. China's import volume is expected to be 1.524 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons [8][71]. - China's Textile and Clothing Exports: In April 2025, China's textile yarn, fabric, and related product export value was $12.58 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to April, the cumulative export value was $45.848 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The clothing and clothing accessories export value was $11.607 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%; from January to April, the cumulative export was $44.62 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5% [8][81]. - China's Cotton Imports: In April 2025, China imported 60,000 tons of cotton, at a low level in recent years [83]. - China's Cotton Yarn Imports: In April 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton yarn, a slight month - on - month decrease [88]. Inventory - US Retail and Wholesaler Inventories: In March 2025, the US clothing and clothing accessories retail inventory was $58.329 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. The wholesaler inventory was $27.813 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46% [101]. - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventories: As of May 30, 2025, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.74 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 days; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.92 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 days [102]. - Spinning Enterprises' Inventories: As of May 30, 2025, the spinning enterprises' cotton inventory was 33.42 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days; the cotton yarn inventory was 20.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.68 days [104]. - Weaving Mills' Inventories: As of May 30, 2025, the weaving mills' cotton yarn inventory was 8.02 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78 days; the all - cotton grey cloth inventory was 33.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 days [105]. - China's Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of mid - May 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.834 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 318,600 tons, at a low level in recent years [9]. Options - Cotton Option Volatility: The historical volatility of cotton options decreased month - on - month [114].
棉花策略月报-20250603
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-03 07:21