光大期货煤化工策略月报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the domestic urea market will face an expected increase in supply and a phased release of demand, with enterprise inventories likely to decline seasonally. However, the upside of urea prices is significantly limited, and the futures market is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [4]. - In the short term, the downside of the soda ash futures market is limited, but in the long term, the market will continue to face pressure. In June, production device maintenance or emergencies may still disrupt the market, and there is an expectation of a continued recovery in rigid demand [5]. - In June, the glass market will still face expectations of increased supply and weakened demand, with enterprise inventory pressure likely to further increase, and the market downturn is difficult to improve significantly [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industrial Chain - Futures Prices: As of May 30, the monthly decline of the urea main contract was 3.9%, the soda ash main contract was 11.58%, and the glass main contract was 9.83%. In May, the prices of related futures varieties were weak, with urea performing relatively strongly and soda ash the weakest [4][5][6][13][14]. - Futures - related Varieties: In May, the prices of related futures varieties trended weakly, with urea showing relative resilience and soda ash being the weakest [14]. - Coal Prices: In May, the prices of some coal varieties declined. For example, the monthly changes in the ex - works price of Qinhuangdao Youhun steam coal (5500) and the pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin smoky coal (Q5500) were - 41 yuan/ton and - 51 yuan/ton respectively [15]. - LNG Prices: In May, the prices of some LNG products declined. For example, the monthly changes in the prices of Zhongmei Ordos, Ningxia Hanas, and Shaanxi Hancheng were - 320 yuan/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, and - 190 yuan/ton respectively [18]. - Raw Salt Prices: In May, the prices of raw salt in some regions declined slightly [19]. - Synthetic Ammonia Prices: In May, the price of Shandong synthetic ammonia decreased by 5.41% [20]. 3.2 Urea: Demand May Follow Up in June, but the Upside of Prices is Significantly Limited - Spot Prices: In May, the spot prices of urea showed mixed trends, with the mainstream regional price fluctuations ranging from - 40 to + 40 yuan/ton [23]. - Supply: In May, the urea supply fluctuated at a high level, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. In June, if two new plants in Xinjiang are put into operation as planned, the supply level will further increase [4]. - Demand: In May, the follow - up of urea demand was relatively cautious. After the wheat harvest in the north, the demand for corn fertilizer and export demand will support the demand, but the price is difficult to rise significantly [4]. - Inventory: In May, the urea enterprise inventory first decreased and then increased, remaining at a high - level year - on - year. If the agricultural and export demand follows up smoothly in June, the enterprise inventory is expected to continue to transfer to ports and the middle and lower reaches [4]. - Export: In April, China's urea export volume was 0.23 million tons, with little impact on the domestic market. The total export volume from May to September is about 2 million tons, and the export volume is unlikely to change significantly later [4]. - International Market: In May, the international urea prices mostly declined, while China's FOB price increased significantly. At the end of May, India issued a new round of international urea tenders [67][69]. - Related Products: In May, most phosphate fertilizer prices rose, while potash fertilizer prices showed partial declines and partial increases [71]. 3.3 Soda Ash: The Downside of the Short - term Futures Market is Limited, but the Long - term Market Continues to Face Pressure - Spot Prices: In May, the spot prices of soda ash showed local weak declines [78]. - Basis: In May, the basis of soda ash (market average price) strengthened slightly [84]. - Supply: In May, the soda ash supply level decreased significantly, with the industry's start - up rate dropping to a year - on - year low, and the output at the end of May decreased by 8.48% compared to the end of April [90][95]. - Inventory: At the end of May, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 2.86% compared to the end of April. In June, the enterprise inventory may be depleted, but there is a risk of anti - seasonal accumulation [5][100]. - Export: In April, China's soda ash export volume was 170,600 tons, a decrease of 12.21% compared to March. The export volume remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and the possibility of maintaining a high level in the future is still relatively high [5]. - Profit: In May, the production profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda enterprises decreased compared to the same period last year [107]. 3.4 Glass: Demand in June Still Faces Challenges, and the Market Downturn is Difficult to Improve Temporarily - Futures Prices: In May, the glass futures prices continued the unilateral downward trend, with the main 09 contract breaking through the 1000 - yuan mark [6]. - Spot Prices: In May, the spot prices of glass mostly declined, with the mainstream 5mm large - plate market prices dropping by 20 - 120 yuan/ton throughout the month [6]. - Supply: In May, the glass production lines had alternating water - release and ignition, with supply first decreasing and then increasing. In June and July, there is an expectation of increased supply, but the implementation of production line commissioning needs attention [6]. - Inventory: In May, the glass enterprise inventory remained at a relatively high level in recent years, and in the later rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure may continue to increase [6][7]. - Demand: The demand decline rate exceeds the glass production capacity decline rate. In June, after the rainy season starts, the glass demand will be restricted, and the enterprise inventory pressure may reappear [7].