工业硅、多晶硅日评：市场信心较差工业硅价格持续下探，多晶硅低位整理-20250603

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. It is recommended to take short positions on rebounds for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [1]. - For industrial silicon, the overall production has declined with a north - south difference in production trends, and demand from downstream industries is weak. For polysilicon, the supply side maintains a production cut state, and the demand side is also soft [1]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - Price Information: On June 3, 2025, the average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 1.20%; the futures main contract closing price was 7,160 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions all showed a downward trend, with the largest decline of 1.82% for non - oxygenated 553 (Tianjin Port) [1]. - Production and Inventory: In May 2025, industrial silicon production was 307,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production decreased by 15.3% year - on - year. As of May 29, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 589,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons [1]. - Fundamentals and Demand: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season was approaching, the willingness to resume production was insufficient. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand was weak. Silicon alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was insufficient [1]. - Investment Strategy: It is expected that the short - term trend will remain weak, and it is recommended to take short positions on rebounds. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - Price Information: On June 3, 2025, the price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 35.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price was 35,600 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [1]. - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintained production cuts, and some new production capacities might be put into operation, with the expected output remaining within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous price declines of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. - Investment Strategy: Considering the strong uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem, it is expected that the polysilicon price will not have an upward trend in the short term. It is recommended to take short positions on rebounds and continuously monitor the changes on the supply side [1]. Other Related Products - Silicon Wafer, Cell, and Component Prices: The prices of various types of silicon wafers, cells, and components remained unchanged on June 3, 2025 [1]. - Organic Silicon Prices: On June 3, 2025, the price of DMC was 11,450 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the price of 107 glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; the price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1].