研究所晨会观点精萃-20250603

Overall Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Global trade tensions are escalating, leading to increased short - term volatility in global markets. The market has a mixed attitude towards the trade situation, with optimism about trade dialogues but also concerns about tariff hikes. In China, the May PMI data shows economic expansion, yet US trade restrictions pose a short - term dampening effect on domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. For example, stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a cautious approach to long - positions; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: US "steel tariffs" and EU's potential counter - measures, along with intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict, have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market remains optimistic about US trade dialogues, and the US dollar index is generally weak. - Domestic: China's May PMI data indicates economic expansion, but US restrictions in semiconductor and other fields, as well as tariff hikes, pose short - term pressure on domestic risk appetite. Asset suggestions include short - term cautious long - positions for stocks, high - level observation for bonds, and different trading stances for various commodity sectors [2]. Stocks - Affected by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic stocks have declined slightly. The May PMI data is positive, but US trade restrictions and tariff hikes suppress domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on US trade policies and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals showed a volatile pattern, with COMEX gold down 1.33% to $3313.1 per ounce and silver down 1.68%. Fed's cautious stance, Trump's tariff policies, and geopolitical risks have affected the market. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be strong, and in the long - term, the upward logic remains solid. Attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after corrections [4]. Black Metals - Steel: Before the holiday, the spot market was stable, but the futures price declined. During the holiday, trade conflicts increased risk aversion. In the short - term, the steel market is expected to be weak as supply remains high while demand is affected by trade tensions [6]. - Iron Ore: Before the holiday, prices were weak. Although iron - water production has declined, the market is divided on its future path. Supply may increase in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Before the holiday, prices were flat. Demand is fair, but silicon manganese is in an industry - wide loss, and silicon iron has weak downstream procurement. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ production increase is in line with expectations, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran, along with Canadian wildfires, have pushed up oil prices [8]. - Asphalt: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices are expected to follow. Demand is currently average, and inventory depletion has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [8]. - PX: The price is high, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a slight decline later due to potential demand reduction [9]. - PTA: Downstream production has decreased, and supply is expected to increase, leading to a weakening structure in the future [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply has contracted, but downstream production cuts limit inventory depletion. The price will slightly increase [9]. - Short - fiber: It remains in a weak and volatile pattern, with concerns about downstream production and order release [9]. - Methanol: Import and port inventory are increasing, and prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - PP: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The price is likely to move downward [10]. - LLDPE: The supply - demand situation is expected to worsen, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market expects a 50% tariff on copper, driving up prices. The copper ore supply is tight, but demand may decline in the short - term, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. - Aluminum: The 50% tariff on aluminum has led to a slight increase in prices. Supply is high, and demand is expected to decline, but there is still an export rush effect. It is recommended to observe [12]. - Tin: High tariffs, potential supply increases from Myanmar, and seasonal demand decline pose pressure on prices, but it has stabilized after a significant drop [13]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT soybean market is supported by a weak US dollar but faces challenges such as good planting conditions in the US, high Brazilian inventory, and slow sales due to trade tensions. It may maintain a weak range - bound trend [13]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Oil mills' inventory is expected to recover, and the lack of upward momentum in US soybeans affects soybean meal. Rapeseed meal has supply uncertainties. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may shrink [14]. - Oils and Fats: During the holiday, oils and fats were under pressure. The energy market is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, and domestic oils may continue to decline after the holiday, with the soybean - palm oil spread likely to remain inverted [14]. - Hogs: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term correction in near - month contracts [15]. - Corn: New wheat listing may replace some corn demand, but in the long - run, corn is likely to rise, and it will maintain a range - bound trend [15].