宏观周报（5月第5周）：5月PMI仍显内生需求不足-20250603

Macroeconomic Overview - The May PMI indicates persistent weakness in domestic demand, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points[22] - April industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a 3.0% growth in April alone, reflecting some structural highlights despite overall economic challenges[11] Market Dynamics - The stock market experienced a slight decline with a weekly average trading volume of 1,093.9 billion CNY, down 79.4 billion CNY from the previous week, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03%[10] - The bond market showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.85 basis points, indicating ongoing pressure on long-term funding despite a stable short-term liquidity outlook[10] Trade and Policy Impacts - Recent U.S. trade policies, including new restrictions on AI chip exports to China, have limited market optimism, with expectations for further negotiations diminishing[1] - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs initially boosted market sentiment, but subsequent court actions led to renewed market weakness, highlighting the volatility in trade relations[1] Profitability Insights - April's profit growth of 2.6% compared to March reflects a 0.4 percentage point rebound, primarily driven by the "two new" policies benefiting the midstream equipment manufacturing sector[11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to continue its downward trend, with May's decline potentially widening, indicating ongoing pressure on profit margins[13] Risk Factors - Key risks include potential further deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations and weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals, which could exacerbate existing market vulnerabilities[1]