MEITUAN(HK:03690) Guoxin Securities·2025-06-03 07:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The core local business of Meituan has shown excellent profit release, with a revenue of 866 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The adjusted net profit reached 109 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13%, up 3 percentage points [1][9] - The company is expected to increase subsidies starting Q2 2025 to maintain its competitive edge amid rising competition, particularly in the food delivery segment [2][19] - The flash purchase business has seen a 30% increase in order volume year-on-year, with a historical high in profit margins, and the company plans to enhance subsidies to expand market reach [3][22] - The in-store business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, with a 33% increase in GTV year-on-year [4][23] - New business segments, particularly overseas food delivery, are actively expanding, with a 19% increase in revenue year-on-year, although operating losses have also increased [27] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved a revenue of 866 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The core local business generated 643 billion yuan in revenue, also up 18% year-on-year. The operating profit for the core local business was 135 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 21% [1][9][17] Business Segments - The food delivery segment saw a 10% increase in order volume year-on-year, with a revenue growth of 14%. The average order value (AOV) decline has continued to narrow [2][19] - The flash purchase segment's revenue grew approximately 33%, with operating profit reaching 800 million yuan [3][22] - The in-store business's revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding in lower-tier cities [4][23] Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook, expecting adjusted net profits of 447 billion yuan, 587 billion yuan, and 718 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][29] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to remain challenging, but Meituan's operational capabilities and compliance improvements are expected to support sustainable growth [7][29]