碳酸锂周报：成本支撑弱化，价格偏弱震荡-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain stable with an increase in imports, while the demand growth rate is slower than supply. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price rebounds to a high level and to keep an eye on upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - Production: In May, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 73020 tons. This week, the output increased by 350 tons to 15398 tons. The production of lithium salt plants has been stable, and some overseas mines have adjusted their production plans. For example, Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year to 700,000 - 740,000 tons, and the Bald Hill concentrator planned to stop operating in early December 2024 [4]. - Import: In April 2025, China's lithium ore import volume was 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The lithium carbonate import volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56%. It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salt will remain high [4]. - Cost: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [4]. 3.2 Demand - side - Production and Sales of Batteries: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0%. The total export was 22.3GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 64.2%. The sales volume was 118.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 73.5%. The overall production in June is expected to be flat month - on - month [5]. - New Energy Vehicle Market: The introduction of the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the Chinese new energy vehicle market [5]. 3.3 Inventory This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a build - up. The factory inventory decreased by 1142 tons to 33401 tons, the market inventory increased by 3409 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 427 tons [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion Given the situation of strong supply and weak demand that has not improved, it is recommended to short - sell when the price of lithium carbonate rebounds to a high level. It is also necessary to continuously monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode materials [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Lithium Carbonate Production and Inventory: There are data on monthly and weekly production, as well as weekly inventory changes over multiple years [7][8][9][10][11]. - Lithium Concentrate Price: The average price of imported lithium concentrate (Li2O: 6% - 6.5%) is presented over a long - term time series [14][15]. - Battery Production and Related Data: Data on the production, export, and sales of power and other batteries, as well as the production and sales differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are provided [5][20][23]. - Production of Lithium Carbonate from Different Raw Materials: In April 2024, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium salt lakes accounted for 20.06%, from lithium mica 23.35%, and from lithium spodumene 44.61% [21][22]. - Production of Cathode Materials: There are data on the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials over multiple years [26][27][31]. - Prices of Related Products: The average prices of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial grade), lithium iron phosphate (power - type), and ternary materials (8 - series NCA type) are presented over different time periods [18][35][39]. - Import Volume: Data on the import volume of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over multiple years are provided [37][41].