不轻松的经济“软着陆”

Group 1: Policy Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. tariff fluctuations are expected to decrease, with a focus on domestic policies as the Trump administration faces feedback constraints from judicial bodies and the market [2][12]. - The total level of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on global imports is projected to stabilize around 15%, with strategic goods like steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals likely to retain high tariffs [2][12]. - The "Beautiful Bill" passed by the House is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.1 trillion over ten years, with the deficit rate potentially rising to 7% by 2026 [3][13][25]. Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - Following a negative growth in Q1, the U.S. economic growth momentum is anticipated to recover marginally from May onwards, with annual growth expected to reach 1.6% in 2025 [3][27]. - The report predicts that consumer confidence and corporate investment willingness will improve due to fiscal expansion and reduced tariff impacts, contributing to a more stable labor market with an unemployment rate around 4.5% [3][27][30]. - The report highlights that while the labor market remains resilient, new non-farm employment is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies [30]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core inflation in the U.S. is expected to remain sticky, with projections indicating it will stay above 3% annually through 2026, influenced by fiscal expansion and tariff policies [3][4][28]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement preventive rate cuts in late 2025, although high long-term interest rates may limit the effectiveness of these cuts [4][10]. - The report suggests that the high yield on U.S. Treasury bonds could become a significant constraint on fiscal and tariff policies, as well as market performance [4][10][40]. Group 4: Asset Valuation and Market Dynamics - The valuation premium of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets is expected to continue shrinking, with rising risk premiums and challenges in bond yields [4][10]. - The report forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will remain in the range of 4.5% to 5% in the second half of 2025, which could negatively impact stock valuations [4][10][41]. - The report notes that the rapid increase in Treasury yields could drag down stock valuations, indicating a potential volatility source for risk assets [4][10][41].